FedEx ATP Performance Zone

[Lucas]

Federer, Nadal, Djokovic: As Unbreakable From 15/0 As They Are At 40/3

Spoiler:

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows how the Big Three are close to untouchable at three important scorelines
What’s the difference between 15/0, 30/15 and 40/30? Essentially nothing…

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the Big Three since the start of the 2015 season up to Roland Garros at these three scorelines identifies that the percentage chance of holding serve varies only by about one percentage point.

You would naturally think there would be a significant increase in holding from 40/30 over 15/0, but it’s simply not the case. The following breakdown for Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer shows a consistent trend with all three point scores.


Percentage Point Range Between 15/0, 30/15 and 40/30
Novak Djokovic = 1.1 percentage point
Roger Federer = 1.0 percentage point
Rafael Nadal = 1.0 percentage point

No. 1 Novak Djokovic / 2015-2019 Holding Serve From Three Point Scores

Point Score

Points Won

Points Played
Hold Percentage

15/0

2298

2487

92.4%

30/15

1396

1517

92.0%

40/30

1034

1110

93.1%

Djokovic had the highest percentage chance of holding serve of the three point scores at 40/30 (93.1%). You would think being just one point from closing the game would significantly increase his chance of holding serve from a 15/0 position, but the gap between the two is just 0.7 percentage points.

No. 2 Rafael Nadal / 2015-2019 Holding Serve From Three Point Scores

Point Score

Points Won

Points Played
Hold Percentage

15/0

2023

2193

92.2%

30/15

1326

1432

92.6%

40/30

955

1024

93.2%

Nadal also held serve the most when leading 40/30, 93.2 per cent (955/1024) of the time. All three of Nadal’s win percentages fall within a one percentage point range, between 92.2 per cent and 93.2 per cent.

World No. 3 Roger Federer / 2015-2019 Holding Serve From Three Point Scores

Point Score

Points Won

Points Played

Hold Percentage

15/0

2183

2278

95.8%

30/15

1246

1314

94.8%

40/30

873

914

95.5%

Federer had the highest win percentages for the Big Three at all three point scores. Surprisingly, Federer had a slightly better chance of holding serve at 15/0 (2183/2278) than he did at either of the other two point scores.

When you drill down into statistics, you often find things can be quite different than you realise. In this case, the change you think is there doesn’t exist at all.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/nadal-d ... -june-2019

[Lucas]

[Lucas]

How Nadal Shrugged Off Disappointment At Roland Garros

Spoiler:

Disappointment versus determination.

When adversity inevitably arrives in a tennis match, players are going to react in one of two ways. When the walls come crumbling down around you, how players react to tough situations will ultimately define if they are holding the silverware on Sunday.

An Infosys ATP Insights analysis of Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros this year uncovered a key stat that is as good as any at showing his mental toughness and resilience under pressure, which led to title No. 12 in Paris.

Nadal faced 28 break points for the tournament and was broken nine times. How did Nadal deal with the failure of not holding serve nine times? By immediately breaking back seven times in his ensuing return game. It’s an extremely impressive statistic that clearly identifies how determined he was to get the break straight back to get back on level footing.

You May Also Like: The Stat To Watch As Djokovic & Nadal's Year-End No. 1 Battle Heats Up
The leading ten players (including ties) at Roland Garros this year who broke back immediately after being broken were:
1. Rafael Nadal = 77.8% (7/9)
2. Alexey Vatutin = 62.5% (5/8)
T3. Grigor Dimitrov = 50% (5/10)
T3. Marin Cilic = 50% (4/8)
5. Yannick Maden = 46.2% (6/13)
T6. Diego Schwartzman = 42.9% (6/14)
T6. Alexandre Muller = 42.9% (3/7)
T8. Novak Djokovic = 41.7% (5/12)
T8. Roberto Carballes Baena = 41.7% (5/12)
T10. Marton Fucsovics = 40% (4/10)
T10. Kei Nishikori = 40% (10/25)

Nadal made 70 per cent (403/575) of his first serves at Roland Garros this year, but that number skyrocketed up to 89 per cent (25/28) when he faced a break point. Overall, he was broken six times out of 25 when the break point started with a first serve, and he was broken all three times a break point started with his second serve.

Another interesting breakdown of Nadal’s 28 break points faced at Roland Garros this year is a look at which side of the court they occurred.

Of the 28 break points Nadal faced, 75 per cent (21/28) occurred in the Ad court, where he made 19/21 first serves. Only seven break points occurred in the Deuce court, where the Spaniard made six of seven first serves.

Nadal’s performance breaking back immediately at Roland Garros this year seems super-human compared to how he regularly performs in this area during the regular season.

Nadal Breaking Back Immediately After Being Broken

2019 Roland Garros 7/9 78%
2015-2019 All Matches (excluding RG19) 154/464 33%
Nadal’s elevated performance in this specific area at Roland Garros this year was more than double the break-back percentage he is typically at. It’s just another way that numbers help illustrate Nadal’s mental fortitude.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/nadal-b ... -june-2019

[Barty]

[Lucas]

For Federer, 0/40 Is Often Just The Beginning

Spoiler:

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows Federer rallies the best on serve
It’s time for a “hot take” on point score to see how good your tennis intuition really is. Here’s a fun quiz that is focused on winning the game in two specific serve and return scenarios.

Scenario 1: Serving at 0/40
You are in the deepest serve hole there is. You need at least five points to hold serve, and for the first three points your opponent is salivating over break points. One slip and you are done.

Scenario 2: Returning at 30/15
Now you need only three points to break serve, while the server needs two. You are much closer to the finish line than the first scenario, but you don’t have the benefit of serving.

Have a think about it… Which scenario offers the highest percentage chance of winning the game?

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 from the 2015 season to this week identifies that, on average, they have a higher percentage of winning the game when serving from 0/40. The data set comes from ATP Masters 1000 events and the Nitto ATP Finals.


Current Top 10 Average: Winning The Game
Serving from 0/40 = 19.0% (236/1240).
Breaking from 30/15 = 15.8% (2008/12715)

Eight of the current Top 10 adhered to this pattern, while only No. 9 Daniil Medvedev and No. 10 Fabio Fognini performed better breaking from 30/15.

Current Top 10: Holding from 0/40 - 2015 to Current Week

Ranking

Player

Holding from 0/40

Total 0/40 Points

Hold %

3

R. Federer

24

79

30.4%

2

R. Nadal

32

138

23.2%

4

D. Thiem

38

171

22.2%

1

N. Djokovic

25

119

21.0%

7

K. Nishikori

25

137

18.2%

8

K. Khachanov

16

93

17.2%

6

S. Tsitsipas

12

70

17.1%

5

A. Zverev

28

177

15.8%

10

F. Fognini

25

162

15.4%

9

D. Medvedev

11

94

11.7%

-

TOTAL / AVERAGE

236

1240

19.0%

Roger Federer leads the Top 10 in holding from 0/40 since the beginning of the 2015 season, at 30.4 per cent (24/79). Federer’s gap over second-placed Rafael Nadal is a substantial seven percentage points, or almost a 25 per cent increase. The other two players who were above the Top 10 average of 19 per cent were Dominic Thiem (22.2%) and Novak Djokovic (21%).

Current Top 10: Breaking from 30/15 - 2015 to Current Week

Ranking

Player

Breaking from 30/15

Total 30/15 Points

Break Percentage

2

R. Nadal

280

1417

19.8%

1

N. Djokovic

300

1538

19.5%

7

K. Nishikori

247

1429

17.3%

3

R. Federer

227

1396

16.3%

10

F. Fognini

198

1231

16.1%

5

A. Zverev

226

1525

14.8%

4

D. Thiem

245

1721

14.2%

9

D. Medvedev

101

779

13.0%

6

S. Tsitsipas

85

725

11.7%

8

K. Khachanov

99

954

10.4%

-

TOTAL / AVERAGE

2008

12715

15.8%

Nadal leads the current Top 10 in breaking from a 30/15 scoreline at 19.8 per cent (280/1417). Djokovic is hot on his heels, breaking 19.5 per cent (300/1528) from this specific scoreline. The other three players above the Top 10 average of 15.8 per cent are Kei Nishikori (17.3%), Roger Federer (16.3%) and Fabio Fognini (16.1%).

Your first instinct was probably to go with the 30/15 point score when returning, as it’s a fairly even battleground and you need only three points to break. But this analysis uncovers just how dominant the serve is. The biggest hole serving is actually not as deep as what you must encounter on the returning side of the equation.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/federer ... -july-2019

[Lucas]

Nadal Is Best At 'Toughest Stat In Tennis'

Spoiler:

It’s the toughest stat in tennis. It’s basically a one out of 100 shot in the dark...

This specific situation is so rough for players in the Top 50 of the ATP Rankings that achieving it just once in half a season is considered a success. Quite a few players at the elite level of our sport actually fail to even get on the board.

What statistic could be so diabolical? Breaking serve from a 40/0 scoreline.

An Infosys ATP Insights deep dive of the Top 50 players breaking serve from 40/0 from the start of the 2019 season up to this current week uncovers that they average breaking serve from this black hole just 1.38 per cent (84/6072) of the time. It’s such a dire situation that eight Top 50 (16%) players have failed to accomplish it even once so far in 2019.

Who is the leader of the pack in climbing out this incredibly precarious situation? None other than Rafael Nadal, who is the only player in 2019 to break serve from 40/0 five times. The 10 leading players in the Top 50 who have the best break percentage when returning at 40/0 are highlighted in the table below.

2019 Season: Top 50 Current To This Week - Percentage Breaking From 40/0

Ranking

Player

Game Won Returning From 40/0

Total Games Trailing 40/0

Win Percentage

2

Rafael Nadal

5

102

4.90%

18

David Goffin

4

99

4.04%

37

Laslo Djere

4

120

3.33%

33

Kyle Edmund

3

90

3.33%

36

Cristian Garin

3

99

3.03%

4

Dominic Thiem

3

124

2.42%

6

Kei Nishikori

3

124

2.42%

7

Alexander Zverev

3

132

2.27%

35

Jan-Lennard Struff

3

149

2.01%

38

Alex de Minaur

2

103

1.94%

Special mention must go to Taylor Fritz, who is in the group of players who have broken three times from 40/0 this season. But he has done it from 172 attempts, which drops his overall win percentage down to 13th best, at 1.74 per cent.

The only two players to break more than three times from a 40/0 hole so far in 2019 are No. 18 David Goffin and No. 37 Laslo Djere, who have both broken four times this season. Below is a breakdown of how many times the current Top 50 have broken from 40/0. The most abundant total is two times, accounting for 16 players.

Top 50 Analysis: Total Players Breaking From 40/0
5 breaks from 40/0 = 1 player
4 breaks from 40/0 = 2 players
3 breaks from 40/0 = 8 players
2 breaks from 40/0 = 16 players
1 break from 40/0 = 15 players
0 breaks from 40/0 = 8 players

The moral of the story is to never give up, no matter how much the odds are stacked against you. There is always a way out of the darkest hole.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/nadal-b ... -july-2019

[Lucas]

At 38, Roger Federer Is Still Fastest Out Of The Blocks

Spoiler:

If Roger Federer were a sprinter, he would be the fastest to get out of the blocks.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 20 winning the first point of their service games and progressing to 15/0 compared to losing the first point and dropping to 0/15 reveals that Federer has been the most successful at getting the fastest start this season.

The five best players from the current Top 20 at progressing to 15/0 in 2019 when serving:
Roger Federer - 72.9% (439/602)
John Isner - 72.6% (339/467)
Novak Djokovic - 70.1% (425/606)
Kevin Anderson - 69.8% (148/212)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 69.6% (471/677)

Federer won his opening-round match at the US Open on Monday night, defeating Indian qualifier Sumit Nagal 4-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-4. He was slightly below his season average for the match, winning the opening point 67 per cent (12/18) of the time.

Of the 12 times he won the opening point, he won every service game; of the six times he lost the opening point, he was broken three times.

At the Miami Open presented by Itau in March and April, Federer was at his ruthless best moving to 15/0 instead of dropping to 0/15 when serving. He successfully navigated to 15/0 50 times in 61 service games (82%).

He was also above his season average the tournament before, at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, where he made the final, moving to 15/0 40 of 54 times (74.1%).

The most recent tournament Federer won was the NOVENTI OPEN in Halle in June, where he moved to 15/0 73.3 per cent (44/60) of the time.

Roberto Bautista Agut is not renowned for his big serving, so it’s particularly impressive to see him fifth best in this category out of the current Top 20. The Spaniard is enjoying his career-best ATP Ranking at No. 10 and won the Qatar ExxonMobil Open in January.

Bautista Agut has averaged winning the opening point of his service game 69.6 per cent (471/677) of the time this season, but that elevated to 75.4 per cent (43/57) when he won the ATP 250 event in Doha.

It’s just one point, but the first point of your service game clearly influences the weather for the points immediately following it.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/federer ... ugust-2019

[Lucas]

Djokovic Approaching Mount Everest As A Returner

Spoiler:

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows that the Serbian is close to making history this season from the returning side
Only two men in the past 29 years have conquered the Mount Everest of converting break points in a single season by winning more than they lose. Novak Djokovic is currently tantalisingly close to becoming the third.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of break points converted identifies that Djokovic has won 49.41 per cent (209/423) of his break points in 49 matches so far in 2019. It represents a big leap forward from his performance in this area in 2018, where he won only 39.87 per cent (246/617) from 65 matches.

What will it take for Djokovic to reach the magic 50 per cent marker? Win the next five break points he sees, which will put him at 214 of 428 – exactly 50 per cent.

You May Also Like: Wawrinka Wards Off Double Fault Pain In Rankings Resurgence
When Djokovic won the 2019 Australian Open, he won exactly 50 per cent (42/84) of break points. When he won the Mutua Madrid Open in May, he was at 66.7 per cent (10/15) break points converted. In winning Wimbledon for a fifth time this year, he was not far off his average, winning 46.8 per cent (37/79) of break points.

The career single-season record holder in this metric is Italian Filippo Volandri, who blew it out of the water in 2004, winning 53.13 per cent (212/399) of break points in 53 matches. Volandri won the ATP Tour title in St. Poelten that year, winning 53.7 per cent (29/53) of break points for the tournament.

Filippo Volandri At 2004 St. Poelten

Round

Result

Break Points

Final

d. X. Malisse

(won 6/9)

SF

d. D. Sanchez

(won 8/11)

QF

d. V. Hanescu

(won 4/6)

Round Of 16

d. R. Sluiter

(won 5/9)

Round Of 32

d. T. Berdych

(won 6/18)



Total

Won 53.7% (29/53)

It’s interesting to note that Volandri and Djokovic crossed paths only once, at the 2004 Plava Laguna Croatia Open Umag. Volandri won the first-round meeting 7-6(5), 6-1.

The other player to win north of 50 per cent of break points is former No. 1 Gustavo Kuerten, who won 50.11 per cent (234/467) from 75 matches in 1999.

Kuerten won two ATP Masters 1000 titles that year – the Internazionali BNL d'Italia in Rome and the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters. He was dominant on break points in taking the Monte-Carlo title, winning a jaw-dropping 60.5 per cent (23/38).

Djokovic currently trails Rafael Nadal by 1,960 points in the ATP Race To London. If the Serbian is to repeat as year-end No. 1, converting break points at his current clip will be a key factor.

1991-2019: Season Leader Break Points Converted

Year

Tour Leader

Win Percentage

2004

F. Volandri

53.13%

1999

G. Kuerten

50.11%

2003

V. Spadea

49.87%

1995

T. Muster

49.43%

2019

N. Djokovic (YTD)

49.41%

2012

R. Nadal

49.19%

2001

F. Mantilla

49.13%

1996

J. Novak

49.08%

1991

A. Jarryd

48.71%

2011

X. Malisse

48.50%

2007

D. Ferrer

48.48%

2014

R. Nadal

48.44%

2006

J. Nieminen

48.10%

2017

D. Dzumhur

47.93%

2013

N. Davydenko

47.90%

1994

S. Bruguera

47.68%

2008

N. Djokovic

47.38%

2015

G. Simon

47.29%

1993

A. Berasategui

47.21%

1992

A. Agassi

47.21%

2009

R. Nadal

47.05%

2005

N. Kiefer

46.97%

2002

J. Novak

46.92%

1998

K. Kucera

46.81%

1997

A. Corretja

46.48%

2018

G. Monfils

46.42%

2000

L. Hewitt

46.28%

2010

J. C. Ferrero

46.13%

2016

G. Monfils

45.79%

Editor's note: Craig O'Shannessy is a member of Novak Djokovic's coaching team.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/novak-d ... fosys-2019

[Lucas]

Federer, Nadal: The Masters Of Momentum

Spoiler:

Roger Federer is a master at building momentum. Rafael Nadal is the king of killing it if it's flowing against him.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 from the 2019 season focusses on players winning three points in a row when serving to surge to 40/0, and also losing three in a row to drop into a precarious 0/40 hole.

Serving: Getting To 40/0
So far in the 2019 season, Federer wins the opening three points of his service game almost 38 per cent of the time – well above the Top 10 average of 32 per cent. In second place is World No. 1 Novak Djokovic, who is following closely behind at 36.21 per cent (256/707).

The other two players who have won three points in a row to start their service games more than a third of the time are Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Current Top 10: Winning Three Consecutive Points To Go To 40/0

#

Player

Reaching 40/0

Total Service Games

Percentage At 40/0

1

R. Federer

268

707

37.91%

2

N. Djokovic

256

707

36.21%

3

R. Nadal

225

664

33.89%

4

S. Tsitsipas

285

853

33.41%

5

D. Thiem

212

649

32.67%

6

D. Medvedev

269

858

31.35%

7

R. Bautista Agut

228

735

31.02%

8

A. Zverev

221

741

29.82%

9

K. Khachanov

176

619

28.43%

10

K. Nishikori

172

607

28.34%

-

AVERAGE

2312

7140

32.38%

Serving: Avoiding Falling To 0/40
Nadal is best of the current Top 10 at not losing three points in a row and falling to 0/40 in his service games this season. Only 2.26 per cent (15/664) of the time does Nadal find himself in a 0/40 hole.


Federer comes in second at 2.40 per cent, while Djokovic is not far away in third place at 3.39 per cent. The Top 10 average falling to 0/40 just 4.31 per cent (308/7140), or around one in 23 service games.

Current Top 10: Losing Three Consecutive Points To Go To 0/40

#

Player

Times at 0/40

Service Games

Percentage At 0/40

1

R. Nadal

15

664

2.26%

2

R. Federer

17

707

2.40%

3

N. Djokovic

24

707

3.39%

4

S. Tsitsipas

32

853

3.75%

5

R. Bautista Agut

29

735

3.95%

6

D. Medvedev

38

858

4.43%

7

K. Nishikori

29

607

4.78%

8

K. Khachanov

38

619

6.14%

9

D. Thiem

40

649

6.16%

10

A. Zverev

46

741

6.21%

-

AVERAGE

308

7140

4.31%

It’s important to note that the Big Three – Federer, Nadal, Djokovic – are the leading three players in both categories. Sometimes it’s difficult to pinpoint exactly where they create their separation from the rest of the Top 10. Here’s one such specific example.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/federer ... tober-2019

[Damian]

Federer & Djokovic Lead Indoor Performers At The Nitto ATP Finals

Spoiler:

The FedEx ATP Performance Zone provides insight into the success of the London competitors indoors
The Nitto ATP Finals is the world’s most prestigious tennis tournament, with the top eight players battling it out for the trophy at the season finale. But since they will be playing inside The O2, which of the octet has been most successful indoors in their career?
Three members of the field have previously lifted the Nitto ATP Finals trophy, but nobody competing has won as many matches or at a higher rate than Roger Federer. The Swiss superstar tops the active leaderboard in both categories.
Federer could potentially earn his 300th tour-level victory indoors next week in London. He holds a 296-68 record indoors, having won more than 81 per cent of his matches. No other active player has 150 wins indoors.
The 38-year-old has captured 26 ATP Tour trophies indoors, which ranks fifth in the Open Era. The nearest active player on the list is Andy Murray, who has 15. Federer holds the record for most titles at this event with six.
"You’ve got to be sharp, I think,” Federer said last year. “You’ve got to be explosive. You’ve got to be quick in your decision-making.
“Playing aggressive and playing forward and taking charge of the point is definitely what you should be doing indoors.”
Player Indoor Record Indoor Winning Percentage Indoor Titles
1. Roger Federer 296-68 81.3% 26
2. Novak Djokovic 148-40 78.7% 13
3. Daniil Medvedev 40-18 69.0% 2
4. Rafael Nadal 82-37 68.9% 3
5. Stefanos Tsitsipas 27-14 65.9% 2
6. Alexander Zverev 40-26 60.6% 3
7. Dominic Thiem 46-33 58.2% 2
8. Matteo Berrettini 9-7 56.3% 0
But Djokovic, a five-time champion, is not far behind. The Serbian ranks second in the field in both wins and winning percentage indoors. The 32-year-old owns a 148-40 record, emerging victorious 78.7 per cent of the time.
Federer and Nadal have distanced themselves from the pack in this category, according to the FedEx ATP Performance Zone. Nobody else playing in these Nitto ATP Finals has won more than 70 per cent of their indoor matches. The closest is Daniil Medvedev, who has used his indoor success over the past couple of years to propel him into the Top 5 of the ATP Rankings.
Medvedev, who has won 69 per cent of his indoor matches, has the best record indoors this year with a 12-2 mark. The Russian has lifted three of his seven ATP Tour trophies under a roof, with all of those triumphs coming in the past two years.

World No. 1 Rafael Nadal is right behind Medvedev, having won 68.9 per cent of his indoor matches. The Spaniard, who holds an 82-37 indoor record, will hope to play his best at The O2 as he battles Novak Djokovic for the year-end No. 1 ATP Ranking. Winning two round-robin matches and then advancing to the final would guarantee the lefty accomplishes the feat for the fifth time, tying Djokovic, Federer and Jimmy Connors for second all-time.
Stefanos Tsitsipas ranks fifth among 2019 Nitto ATP Finals competitors having won just short of 66 per cent of his indoor matches, and reigning season finale champion Alexander Zverev is sixth with a 60.6 winning percentage.
Rounding out the London field are Dominic Thiem, who has won more than 58 per cent of his indoor matches, and first-time qualifier Matteo Berrettini at over 56 per cent.
Did You Know?
There have been 14 tour-level knockout tournaments indoors this season, and Nitto ATP Finals qualifiers won six of them.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/fedex-a ... inals-2019

[Lucas]

WHY ROGER FEDERER IS THE BEST ALL-ROUND SPOT SERVER

Spoiler:

First serves are all about dropping heat and hitting spots, and there is no better return on investment for the Top 10 than going down the T in the Deuce Court.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 uncovers who thrives the most at which first-serve location, and where the highest win percentages are located.

The six serve locations are wide, body and T in both the Deuce Court and Ad Court, with the data set coming from ATP Masters 1000 events, Nitto ATP Finals and Next Gen ATP Finals from 2011 to 2019.

The breakdown starts with the highest average win percentage location (Deuce Court T) and finishes with the lowest (Ad Court Body). It’s interesting to note that Roger Federer was the only player to feature in the top three at all six serve locations.

No. 1: Deuce Court T (Average Win % = 76.9%)
Only three players were able win north of 80 per cent at any of the six locations. Matteo Berrettini, who was ranked outside the Top 50 to begin 2019, boasts a new career-high ATP Ranking this week of No. 8, and out of all six serve locations, Berrettini had the highest win percentage at 82.5 per cent. He did it by going down the T in the Deuce Court.

Berrettini averaged hitting his first serve at 133 mph to this location, accumulating 82 aces and 83 unreturned serves.

The leading three players at this location:
M. Berrettini = 82.5%
R. Federer = 81.1%
S. Tsitsipas = 81.0%

No. 2: Ad Court Wide (Average Win % = 75.6%)
Russian sensation Daniil Medvedev led the Top 10 with winning first-serve points out wide in the Ad court, at 79.4 per cent.

He averages 123 mph with his first serve to this location, hitting 150 aces and having 168 first serves unreturned. Medvedev sits at his career-high ATP Ranking of No. 4, with four titles under his belt this season, including Masters 1000 crowns in Cincinnati and Shanghai.

The leading three players at this location:
D. Medvedev = 79.4%
R. Federer = 78.9%
S. Tsitsipas = 78.6%

No. 3: Deuce Court Wide (Average Win % = 75.3%)
Austrian Dominic Thiem is the leader with the wide slider in the Deuce Court, winning 78.4 per cent of first-serve points.

Thiem’s average first-serve speed to this location is 113 mph, which is considerably slower than the 121 mph he averages going down the T in the Deuce Court. This identifies that slice becomes more of a factor with the wide serve, carving the ball away from the returner.

The leading three players at this location:
D. Thiem = 78.4%
M. Berrettini = 77.3%
R. Federer = 77.2%

No. 4: Ad Court T (Average Win % = 73%)
Federer and Berrettini tied for the lead at this location, with both players winning 75.1 per cent of their first serves. Federer’s average first-serve speed is 117 mph, while Berrettini is considerably higher at 128 mph.

The leading three players at this location:
T1. R. Federer = 75.1%
T1. M. Berrettini = 75.1%
3. S. Tsitsipas = 75.0%

No. 5: Deuce Court Body (Average Win % = 65.4%)
It’s interesting to note that Thiem led the Top 10 with the wide and body serves in the Deuce court, two locations that are that side by side.

The leading three players at this location:
D. Thiem = 70.3%
R. Federer = 69.8%
R. Nadal = 66.3%

No. 6: Ad Court Body (Average Win % = 62.8%)
World No. 1 Novak Djokovic leads this category with a considerable 2.2 percentage-point lead over his nearest rival, winning 68.5 per cent of first serves at the body in the Ad Court.

Djokovic averages 116 mph to this location, which is faster than the 114 mph he averages going out wide and equal with when he goes down the T in the Ad court.

The leading three players at this location:
N. Djokovic = 68.5%
R. Federer = 66.3%
R. Nadal = 65.4%

https://www.nittoatpfinals.com/en/news- ... mber-2019-

[Lucas]

Nadal, Djokovic & Federer Among Surface Leaders In 2019

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/fedex-z ... by-surface

Inside Rafael Nadal's Mind When He's Serving

Spoiler:

Tennis is a game of primary and secondary patterns that are heavily dictated by point score.

When players want to get ahead, or when they feel they really need a point, they tend to gravitate to high percentage primary patterns of play that they know will deliver a winning percentage.

When they are already ahead in the score, are looking to confuse the opponent or are in a position where they can afford to lose the point, they generally throw in a lower percentage secondary pattern of play.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Rafael Nadal’s first-serve patterns in 2019 highlights exactly how the Spaniard successfully mixed strategies between primary and secondary patterns to keep opponents off balance. The serve location data set comes from ATP Masters 1000 events in 2019 and the recent Nitto ATP Finals.

First-Serve Location: Love All
This is a perfect time to run a primary pattern, which for Nadal, means a slice first serve down the T. That’s exactly what he gravitated to more than six times out of 10 this season. The thinking here is to start the game on the right foot with what he knows best and surge to 15/0 as many times as possible.

Nadal First-Serve Direction Love All
Wide = 25.4% (45)
Body = 13.0% (23)
T = 61.6% (109)

Nadal won 90 per cent of his service games in 2019, and if he went ahead 15/0, that metric elevated to 94 per cent (473/502). But when Nadal next returns to the Deuce Court after completing two points, his mindset is very much dictated by the point score.


First-Serve Location: 15/15
At 15/15, it’s essentially the same point score and mentality as Love All, and therefore Nadal largely sticks with the same game plan. It’s back to the primary pattern of slicing the first serve down the T and looking to follow it up with his lethal Serve +1 forehand, although Nadal mixes up his serve location at 15/15 more so than at Love All.

Nadal First-Serve Direction 15/15
Wide = 36.1% (26)
Body = 12.5% (9)
T = 51.4% (37)

First-Serve Location 30/0
If Nadal won the opening two points of his service game in 2019, he was almost unstoppable, winning 98 per cent (346/354). He is basically a lock from this point score, so he has the breathing room to be creative with his serve direction. Nadal’s No. 1 target now shifts out wide in the Deuce Court.

Nadal First-Serve Direction 30/0
Wide = 51.6% (33)
Body = 6.2% (4)
T = 42.2% (27)

First-Serve Location 0/30
At 0/30, the alarm bells are ringing a little, but Nadal still is favoured to win the game. In 2019, he won 61 per cent (46/76) of his service games from 0/30.

Nadal First-Serve Direction 0/30
Wide = 48.8% (20)
Body = 14.6% (6)
T = 36.6% (15)

What’s interesting is that the serve location mix was more even than the other point scores, but there were more first serves out wide than down the T (20-15).

These numbers are clear examples of the guessing game of serve location going on between Nadal and the returner. The returner will be guessing T, which is Nadal’s favourite location (same for almost all lefties in the Deuce Court), because Nadal is down 0/30 in the point score and “needs the point”.

But Nadal also sees this as an opportunity to surprise, so he primarily targets the location the returner is least expecting. This cat and mouse game of first-serve location linked to the point score is played out at all levels of our sport around the world.

When people talk about the “mental game” of tennis, you need to look no further than the World No. 1 beginning his service games.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/nadal-s ... fosys-2019

Why Looking Left Is Right Play For Novak

Spoiler:

When everyone goes right, Novak Djokovic goes left.

An Infosys ATP Insights deep dive into second-serve direction in the 2019 season uncovers that the Serb goes completely against the grain in both the Deuce court and Ad court with his primary second-serve direction.

Djokovic was the only player who served more to the left third of the service box – at his opponents’ forehands – in both the Deuce court and Ad court (rather than the middle third at the body, or the right third, to the right-hander’s backhand wing).

The data set is comprised of the leading 10 players with the highest second-serve win percentage in 2019 and uses their serve direction data from ATP Masters 1000 events and the Nitto ATP Finals this season.

Top 10 Performers Second-Serve Win Percentage

Player

Win Percentage

Rafael Nadal

59.64%

Roger Federer

59.44%

John Isner

57.29%

Novak Djokovic

57.02%

Roberto Bautista Agut

55.96%

Stan Wawrinka

55.38%

Alex de Minaur

55.32%

Dominic Thiem

55.28%

Miomir Kecmanovic

54.86%

Daniil Medvedev

54.57%

To understand serve direction, the service box is cut up into three equal areas:

Left 1/3 (Wide in Deuce court / T in the Ad court)

Middle 1/3

Right 1/3 (T in the Deuce court / Wide in the Ad court)

Deuce Court Second-Serve Direction
Overall, the 10 best in this category overwhelmingly gravitated towards serving down the T, going there with almost half (48.2%) of all second serves in the Deuce court. In fact, eight of the 10 players had this area as their primary location.

10 Players: Deuce Court Direction & Win Percentage

Deuce Court

Location Percentage

Win Percentage

Deuce Wide

23.9%

62.1%

Deuce Body

27.9%

56.3%

Deuce T

48.2%

59%

Djokovic was the only player who served wide to the forehand in the Deuce court more than any of the other two directions.

Djokovic Second-Serve Direction Deuce Court
Deuce Wide = 45.1% (won 58.7%)
Deuce Body = 20.1% (won 61.0%)
Deuce T = 34.8% (won 61.3%)

The Serb hit 45 per cent (184/408) of his second serves wide in the Deuce court, which was considerably more than the second-placed player to this location: Daniil Medvedev, 35.7 per cent. Djokovic’s win percentage was within three percentage points at all three locations, which affords him more versatility and less predictability, especially in pressure situations.

Ad Court Second-Serve Direction
Djokovic served even more to the left side of the service box in the Ad court, which is straight to the right-hander’s forehand return.

On the surface, this would seem like a bad idea, but most players are “sitting” on a backhand return against a second serve and get caught off guard when it goes the other way, which often results in late preparation and a missed return.

10 Players: Ad Court Direction & Win Percentage

Ad Court

Location Percentage

Win Percentage

Ad Wide

43.9%

55.6%

Ad Body

32.2%

57.4%

Ad T

22.9%

61.3%

In the Deuce court, Djokovic serves 45.1 per cent to the left side of the service box, and that elevated to 47.6 per cent in the Ad court.

Once again, Djokovic was the only player in the group to aim primarily to the left side of the service box. His win percentage (65%) down the T to the right-hander’s forehand return was superior to the kicker out wide to the backhand return (62.3%).

Djokovic Second-Serve Direction Ad Court
Ad Wide = 20.7% (won 62.3%)
Ad Body = 31.7% (won 65.3%)
Ad T = 47.6% (won 65%)

Second-serve location is mainly dictated by what type of serve you can hit well (topspin/slice), and the weaknesses in the return game of the opponent. Other times, it’s simply about surprising your opponents.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/djokovi ... ember-2019

[Lucas]

Nadal’s Many Happy Returns To World No. 1

Spoiler:

Rafael Nadal just posted the fourth-best return numbers by a year-end No. 1 in the past 29 years.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers breakdown of year-end No. 1 players since 1991 identifies that Nadal’s 2019 season eclipses the other four times he finished year-end No. 1 in 2017, 2013, 2010 and 2008. The analysis comes from the ATP Return LEADERBOARD, powered by Infosys NIA Data, and is determined by adding the winning percentages in the following four areas:

First-Serve Return Points Won
Second-Serve Return Points Won
Return Games Won
Break Points Converted

Interestingly, the leading five spots for return metrics by a year-end No. 1 from 1991 to 2019 are all from the previous nine years (2011-2019), showing a clear correlation that we are currently in the “golden era” of the service return.

Leading Five Years 1991 - 2019: Return Rating
2011 - N. Djokovic (180.3)
2012 - N. Djokovic (172.2)
2016 - A. Murray (172.2)
2019 - R. Nadal (170.
2013 - R. Nadal (169.6)

As a comparison with serving, only two year-end No. 1 players (Djokovic 2015 / Nadal 2017) from the past decade are also ranked in the top 10 spots for serving.

Nadal’s 2019 return rating of 170.8 was also good enough to elevate him to the top spot on Tour in the specific category in 2019, a place he has not occupied since 2016.

Rafael Nadal: 2019 Season Return Win Percentage & Rating

Return Strategy

Win %

Rating

First-Serve Return Points Won

34.9%

1

Return Games Won

35%

1

Second-Serve Return Points Won

55.9%

2

Break Points Converted

45%

3

The return has always been a strength of Nadal’s game. Amazingly, at 33 years of age, the Spaniard is finding ways to squeeze more out of it, helping elevate him back to the No. 1 ATP Ranking, which he has now occupied for 202 weeks in his illustrious career.

Rafael Nadal: 2004 - 2019 Year-End Ranking & Return Rating

Year-End Ranking

Year

Return Rating

4

2012

179.6

9

2016

177.9

2

2005

176.8

3

2014

174.7

2

2018

174.4

2

2011

171.9

2

2009

170.8

1

2019

170.8

1

2013

169.6

1

2008

168.0

2

2007

166.2

1

2017

164.3

5

2015

159.9

51

2004

159.7

1

2010

159.2

2

2006

157.7

-

AVERAGE

168.8

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/nadal-r ... -no-1-2019

[Lucas]

Surprise! How To Hit A Second-Serve Ace Like Djokovic

Spoiler:

urt is your hot spot.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of 222 second-serve aces by the current Top 10 against right-handed opponents identifies that surprising to the forehand return is the most popular strategy used, with down the T in the Ad court attracting almost half of them.

The data set comes from ATP Masters 1000 events from 2011-2019 and the Nitto ATP Finals.

Second-Serve Ace Direction vs. Right-Handed Opponents

47%: Ad court T - to the forehand return

37%: Deuce court wide - to the forehand return

10%: Deuce court T - to the backhand return

6%: Ad court wide - to the backhand return

Overall, 84 per cent of second-serve aces were directed to the opponent’s forehand return side, with the majority of those occurring down the T in the Ad court.

Novak Djokovic led the pack, with both the total number of second-serve aces (58) and also the most down the T in the Ad court, with 40. The Ad court T aces accounted for 69 per cent (40/58) of the Serb’s second-serve ace total, and 100 per cent of his second-serve aces in the Ad court, with none coming out wide.

2019 Year-End Top 10: 2nd Serve Ace Total & Direction



Deuce T

Deuce Wide

Ad T

Ad Wide

TOTAL

R. Nadal

2

10

5

2

19

N. Djokovic

1

17

40

0

58

R. Federer

5

13

26

5

49

D. Thiem

2

9

2

1

14

D. Medvedev

7

8

8

2

25

S. Tsitsipas

0

3

2

0

5

A. Zverev

2

5

10

0

17

M. Berrettini

1

0

0

0

1

R. Bautista Agut

0

4

4

0

8

G. Monfils

3

13

7

3

26

TOTAL / %

23 (10%)

82 (37%)

104 (47%)

13 (6%)

222 (100%)

Roger Federer knows a thing or two about hitting aces, as he currently sits in third place overall with career total aces (first & second) at 11,299. Federer, like Djokovic, hit more than half (26/49) of his second-serve aces down the T in the Ad court, surprising his right-handed opponents, who would have been expecting the traditional kick serve into the backhand body-jam location.

Gael Monfils went against the grain (but still to the forehand), hitting most of his second-serve aces (13) out wide in the Deuce court. Rafael Nadal also hit the majority of his second-serve aces (10/19) there as well, which is understandable as a left-handed server dipping into his secondary pattern.


Daniil Medvedev, who before 2018 had not won a Masters 1000 match, now has 25 second-serves aces to his credit at this level, with 16 coming against the forehand return, and nine against the backhand return.

Second-serve aces are part risk, part bravado and mostly about winning the all-important guessing game about serve direction.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/second- ... fosys-2019

[Lucas]

How Medvedev Kicked In The Door To The Top 5

Spoiler:

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows how the Russian reached six consecutive finals in 2019
Knock, knock. I have arrived.

Daniil Medvedev’s scorching 32-match streak during six straight tournaments this year catapulted the Russian from No. 10 to No. 4 in the ATP Rankings. From late July to mid-September, Medvedev was the hottest player on the planet.

He didn’t so much walk through the door to the Top 5; he kicked it down.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Medvedev’s six straight tournaments highlighted four specific areas where his game elevated. The six events, including his win/loss record:

Citi Open - Finalist (5-1)

Coupe Rogers - Finalist (4-1)

Western & Southern Open - Champion (6-0)

US Open - Finalist (6-1)

St. Petersburg Open - Champion (4-0)

Rolex Shanghai Masters - Champion (5-0)

OVERALL = 30-2 (3 titles / 3 finals)

1. Bouncing Back From 0/15
Medvedev won 84.1 per cent (810/963) of his service games in 2019 from 79 matches, which was good for 13th best on Tour. But when he fell behind 0/15 in his service games during the 32-match streak from Washington to Shanghai, his overall hold percentage hardly took a hit.

He won 86 of 109 service games, which was good for 78.9 per cent, a drop of just 5.2 percentage points. One point in arrears hardly made a dent.


2. Bold On Break Points
Medvedev served 690 aces in 79 matches this season, for an average of 11.4 aces per match. During the 32-match streak, he served 312 aces in 32 matches for an average of 10.2. So on the surface, this area of his game was slightly down in the 32 matches compared to the rest of the season.

But then you look where they occurred. On break point, Medvedev importantly delivered 15 aces, while committing just four double faults. In big moments, he could often rely on the serve not coming back.

3. Finishing When Ahead
After winning Shanghai, Medvedev said, “Something clicked in my game in the USA. I started to understand even more about my game, even more I would say about my serve.”

Once Medvedev got ahead in his service games, he was almost unstoppable. The following metrics identify how hard he was to catch once he got ahead in the 32-match streak.

Games Won From:
40/0 = 98% (131/133)
30/0 = 95% (182/192)
40/30 = 92% (101/110)
30/15 = 90% (154/171)

4. Break And Hold
Medvedev’s 2019 season average for holding serve was 84.1 per cent (810/963), but that elevated even higher during the 32-match streak when he looked to hold immediately after breaking serve.

Overall, Medvedev broke serve 111 times from Washington to St. Petersburg and had to follow it up with a service game of his own. When that occurred, he won a dominant 88.2 per cent (98/111) of his service games to consolidate the break.

Medvedev was ranked No. 19 in mid-January of 2019, and ended up spending 10 straight weeks at No. 4 before finishing the season at No. 5.

He starts 2020 less than 1,000 ATP Rankings points behind No. 3 Roger Federer, with only 745 points to defend on hard courts in the first three months. Another surge up the ATP Rankings is definitely on the cards.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/how-med ... 9-infosys-

[Lucas]

When These Players Lead 15/0, Turn Out The Lights

Spoiler:

The statistical chance of breaking Ivo Karlovic’s serve when he wins the first point of the game is so small that it’s laughable.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Karlovic's service games for the past five seasons (2015-2019) uncovers just how dominant he has been when he gets ahead in the point score. The data set includes players who have played 50-plus matches during that period, so on average 10 matches per year.

The only point score over the past five seasons where the returner was favoured to break Karlovic was 0/40. How often did opponents win the first three points of the 6’11” Croatian’s serve game? Just 1.8 per cent (59/3329) of the time.

Holding From 40/0
Karlovic is near-perfect at this specific score, holding serve 1,040 times out of 1,041 from 185 matches. During that span, he averaged playing a "love-hold" game almost six times a match. Reilly Opelka, who played his first ATP main draw match in 2016, has not yet dropped serve on Tour when leading 40/0. The leading three players holding from 40/0:

R. Opelka = 100% (310/310)
I. Karlovic = 99.90% (1040/1041)
J. Isner = 99.85% (1362/1364)

Holding From 30/0
Karlovic has dropped serve only 11 times in five years when leading 30/0. It's an astounding statistic that puts him above a 99 per cent win rate with only half the points in the game completed. The leading three players holding from 30/0:

I. Karlovic = 99.23% (1411/1422)
J. Isner = 98.93 (1844/1864)
M. Raonic = 98.76% (1518/1537)

You May Also Like: How Nadal & Djokovic's Returning Dominated In 2019
Holding From 15/0
Karlovic is the career leader for Service Games Won at 92.08 per cent (8713/9462) from 683 matches. He is one of only four players to be above the 90 percentile mark, along with Isner (91.79%), Milos Raonic (91.02%) and Andy Roddick (90.11).

In the past five seasons when Karlovic has won just one point in his service game to surge ahead 15/0, he has won a jaw-dropping 97.3 per cent (1915/1969) of his service games. You may as well turn the lights out after just one point. The leading three players holding from 15/0:

I. Karlovic = 97.26% (1915/1969)
J. Isner = 96.83% (2537/2620)
R. Opelka = 96.66% (636/658)

Holding from 15/40
You may think you have finally turned the tables on Karlovic by putting him in a 15/40 hole. Think again. Karlovic is the only player in the past five seasons to have a winning record from 15/40, just tipping the scales at 50.9 per cent. The leading three players holding from 15/40:

I Karlovic = 50.94% (81/159)
J. Isner = 45.03% (86/191)
S. Wawrinka = 39.77% (138/347)

Holding From 0/40
Amazingly, this is the only point score in the past five seasons that the returner tips the scales above 50 per cent with the odds to break serve. Karlovic is still the best-rated player in this category, holding serve on average one out of three times. The leading three players holding from 0/40:

I. Karlovic = 33.90% (20/59)
R. Federer = 30.12% (25/83)
M. Raonic = 28.57% (22/77)

Karlovic's career-high ATP Ranking is No. 14, which he reached in August 2008. and he was ranked inside the Top 20 as recently as February 2017. The Croatian has made a career of winning one more point than his opponent. He finished the 2016 season ranked No. 20, went 34-24, and won $1.2 million. He won 4,612 points for the season. He lost 4,611.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/karlovi ... ember-2019

[Lucas]

Stan Has The Plan When Times Get Tough

Spoiler:

The 2019 resurrection of Stan Wawrinka has a fascinating sub-plot that provides an insight into how he halved his ATP Ranking and then halved it again this season.

An Infosys ATP Insights deep dive into Wawrinka's journey back to the very top level of our sport identifies the Swiss was No. 68 in February of this year, and finished the season by storming northward all the way back up to No. 16.

Wawrinka held a career-high ATP Ranking of No. 3 as recently as July 2017, but two knee operations later in 2017 knocked his ranking all the way down to No. 263.

Wawrinka finished this year ranked 11th on the ATP Stats Serve LEADERBOARD, powered by Infosys Nia Data, which was considerably higher than 62nd place he finished on the ATP Stats Return LEADERBOARD, powered by Infosys Nia Data.


So what did the Swiss do so well on the serving side of the equation? Buckle down when his service games were under threat. The following data set comes from the 2019 season and includes players who competed in 10-plus matches.

Serve Performance When Trailing In The Game
Wawrinka was ranked 11th overall on the ATP Stats Serve LEADERBOARD, powered by Infosys Nia Data, in 2019, but in four point-score situations where he was trailing in the game, he was ranked considerably higher than his season average.

2019 Season: Wawrinka Ranking Holding Serve / Per Point Score

Point Score

Ranking

Hold Percentage

0/40

3rd

37.0%

0/30

4th

58.8%

15/40

5th

41.6%

0/15

9th

75.4%

Wawrinka’s serve performance elevated in the face of adversity, rising to the challenge at these specific point scores exactly the same way as he methodically improved his ranking back towards 2017 markers.

What’s interesting is that when Wawrinka was level in the point score, or ahead, his performance was solid, but not as good as when he was trailing in the point score compared to his peers.

2019 Season: Wawrinka Ranking Holding Serve / Per Point Score

Point Score

Ranking

Hold Percentage

30/0

16th

97.7%

15/15

17th

82.9%

30/30

19th

80.3%

15/0

22nd

91.8%

Quite simply, Wawrinka performed better when serving under pressure in 2019, rising to the occasion as he rose up the ATP Rankings.

Wawrinka has an excellent opportunity to keep climbing up the rankings in the first quarter of 2020 as he won only two matches combined at the Australian Open, Indian Wells and Miami in 2019.

He does have to defend a final in Rotterdam (300 points) and a quarter-final in Acapulco (90 points), but don’t be surprised to the see the Swiss star break back into the Top 10 around the middle of the year.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/stan-wa ... ights-2019

[Lucas]

Djokovic & Nadal: The Break-Back Kings

Spoiler:

When the going gets tough, the tough break straight back.

Dropping serve is typically accompanied with an emotional letdown. But for some players, determination triumphs over disappointment and the desire to immediately break straight back helps them actually break serve more than they typically do.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the 2019 season identifies Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal were in a class of their own breaking back immediately after being broken. In fact, both players broke back at a higher rate right after being broken than normal and were ranked in the top two this season in this specific category.

2019 Season: Breaking Serve Scenarios For Rafael Nadal & Novak Djokovic

Players

Breaking Straight Back

All Other Break Scenarios

N. Djokovic

37.23% (35/94)

31.05% (218/702)

R. Nadal

37.14% (26/70)

34.73% (224/645)

The data set comprises all players on Tour who played a minimum of 10 matches for the season. The only other two players in 2019 who managed to break back 30 per cent of the time or better were Kei Nishikori (34.21%) and Andrey Rublev (30%).

You May Also Like: When These Players Lead 15/0, Turn Out The Lights
When you look back a little further and expand the data set to the past five years (2015-2019), a familiar face jumps up to third place – Andy Murray.

The Scot played 85 matches in 2015 and 87 matches in 2016, but took time away from the game after Wimbledon in 2017 with a hip injury that required multiple surgeries. He successfully returned to Tour this year and was voted 2019 Comeback Player of the Year.

2015-2019: Breaking Straight Back

Players

Breaking Straight Back

R. Nadal

33.98% (158/465)

N. Djokovic

33.84% (155/458)

A. Murray

30.33% (128/422)

Murray is the leader in this specific metric in two of the past five years, just scraping in for eligibility in the data set in 2018 with 13 matches played. That year he broke back a stunning 40 per cent (14/35) of the time. Murray’s abbreviated 2018 schedule started in June at the Fever-Tree Championships and ended in September at the Shenzhen Open.

2015-2019: Tour Leader Breaking Straight Back

Year

Player

Breaking Straight Back

Percentage

2015

N. Djokovic

35/90

38.89%

2016

A. Murray

44/121

36.36%

2017

D. Schwartzman

64/194

32.99%

2018

A. Murray

14/35

40.00%

2019

N. Djokovic

35/94

37.23%

Getting broken is inevitable. Breaking straight back is optional, and a lot of times it just comes down to staying positive in a tough situation.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/djokovi ... -back-2019

[Lucas]

To Deuce & Beyond: The Players Who Step Up In Return Games

Spoiler:

If the score is Deuce, it’s probably Dominic Thiem returning.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of games that reach Deuce in the past four seasons identifies Thiem as the leading candidate to stretch the server to Deuce, at 863 times. The data set is comprised of all players on tour from 2016-2019 that took the server to Deuce at least 100 times over the four-year span.

Thiem was one of only two players that reached the 800-game mark, with the other being Alexander Zverev, who took the server to Deuce 807 times over the past four seasons.

The leading 10 players that were able to get the score to Deuce when returning from 2016-2019 are in the table below.

2016-2019: Most Games Stretched To Deuce As A Returner

# Player Deuce Games When Returning
1 D. Thiem 863
2 A. Zverev 807
3 N. Djokovic 785
4 D. Goffin 757
5 R. Bautista Agut 742
6 R. Nadal 716
7 K. Nishikori 702
8 D. Schwartzman 693
9 F. Verdasco 690
10 B. Paire 682
2019 Nitto ATP Finals champion Stefanos Tsitsipas led the tour last season with the most amount of return games played at Deuce, with 243.

2019: Total Deuce Games When Returning
S. Tsitsipas = 243
A. Zverev = 232
D. Medvedev = 232

Who won the most return games from Deuce over the past four seasons? It was current World No. 1, Rafael Nadal, who was the only player to top the 40 percentile mark, winning 40.36 per cent (289/716) from 2016-2019.


The 10 leading players who had the highest win percentage are in the table below.

2016-2019: Highest Win Percentage Breaking From Deuce

# Player Games Won/Total Win Percentage
1 R. Nadal 289/716 40.36%
2 A. Murray 172/441 39.00%
3 C. Garin 58/160 36.25%
4 D. Dzumhur 187/523 35.76%
5 N. Djokovic 279/785 35.54%
6 Y. Nishioka 98/278 35.25%
7 R. Gasquet 181/516 35.08%
8 D. Goffin 260/757 34.35%
9 F. Fognini 260/757 34.35%
10 D. Schwartzman 234/692 33.77%
The leading three players from the 2019 season, who had at least 25 games go to Deuce when returning serve were:

2019: Highest Win Percentage Breaking From Deuce
N. Gombos = 44.44% (16/35)
R. Nadal = 41.12% (81/197)
N. Djokovic = 39.52% (83/210)

Extending the server to Deuce is quite often a victory in its own right, making the server have to work harder to hold, which eventually will lead to a break of serve. Converting these longer, grueling games is as much about mental toughness and concentration as it is about return prowess and patterns of play.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/thiem-r ... nuary-2020

[Lucas]

How Federer Uses New Balls To His Advantage On Hard Courts

Spoiler:

New balls, please…

With the Australian Open on the horizon, an Infosys ATP Insights deep dive of serve performance with new balls over the past five seasons uncovers how players take advantage of the fresh, faster balls on hard, grass and clay courts.

Serving With New Balls - Holding Serve 2015-2019

Surface Player Service Games Held %
Grass Milos Raonic 100%
Hard Roger Federer 94.58%
Clay John Isner 95.24%
1. Roger Federer Leads On Hard Courts
Breaking Roger Federer’s serve on hard courts when he is serving with new balls is an almost insurmountable task. Federer has lost serve only 11 times out of 203 service games on hard court in the past five years when serving with fresh balls. Overall, John Isner has won the most service games on hard with new balls with 214 service games, while Dominic Thiem has played the most, with 233 service games.

The five best performers holding serve with new balls on hard (minimum 20 attempts) in the past five seasons:

1. Roger Federer = 94.58% (192/203)
2. Ivo Karlovic = 94.01% (157/167)
3. Nick Kyrgios = 93.79% (166/177)
4. Reilly Opelka = 93.24% (69/74)
5. John Isner = 92.24% (214/232)

2. Milos Raonic Is Perfect On Grass Courts
In the past five years, Milos Raonic has played 43 matches on grass and served with new balls 64 times. He has impressively won every one of those service games. Overall, Raonic has won 70 per cent (49/70) of his matches on grass throughout his career, proving to be his most successful surface. Surprisingly, he has not yet won a grass-court event, but was a finalist at Wimbledon and Queens in 2016, and Stuttgart in 2018.

The five best performers holding serve with new balls on grass (minimum 20 attempts) in the past five seasons:

1. Milos Raonic = 100% (64/64)
2. Ivo Karlovic = 98.31% (58/59)
3. Matteo Berrettini = 95.45% (21/22)
4. Kevin Anderson = 94.92% (56/59)
5. Marin Cilic = 94.74% (54/57)

3. John Isner Surprises On Clay Courts
You would not naturally think of the 34-year-old American Isner as a leader in clay-court performance metrics, but his form is unsurpassed on the surface with new balls, holding serve 95.24 per cent (60/63) of the time. In fact, Isner’s hold percentage on clay with new balls is better than on grass or hard.

John Isner Winning Percentage Holding Serve With New Balls (2015-19)

Surface Winning Percentage
Clay 95.24% (60/63)
Grass 92.59% (50/54)
Hard 92.24% (214/232)
The five best performers holding serve with new balls on clay (minimum 20 attempts) in the past five seasons:

1. John Isner = 95.24% (60/63)
2. Kevin Anderson = 93.75% (45/48)
3. Hyeon Chung = 91.43% (32/35)
4. Steve Johnson = 91.07% (51/56)
5. Juan Ignacio Londero = 89.47% (34/38)

Serving with new balls offers a distinct advantage for the server. Breaking it down by the surface helps identify which players naturally perform better on which surface.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/infosys ... -new-balls