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Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are the big winners in the battle for No. 1 after a day of quarter-final surprises at Wimbledon

If and when the No. 1 Emirates ATP Ranking changes hands in coming months, Wimbledon quarter-finals day likely will be remembered as a watershed moment. And it’s now advantage Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer.
After a surprise five-set loss to Sam Querrey Wednesday, current No. 1 and defending champion Andy Murray finishes the tournament with 360 new points but loses the 2000 points he earned by winning last year. With a further 5,460 points to defend in 2017 after Wimbledon, it was only a matter of time until the weight of Murray’s jaw-dropping late-season success of 2016 became too much to bear. But today’s defeat at the All England Club has brought forward the day of reckoning for the man who has spent the past 36 weeks at No. 1.
Provided their current playing intentions don’t change, top spot could change hands when Murray and Nadal both play their next scheduled event at the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournament in Montreal. Murray will take in a slim 285-point lead over Nadal, meaning that the Spaniard has three pathways to No.1: 1) if he wins the title; 2) if he reaches the final and Murray falls before the semi-finals; or 3) Nadal reaches the semi-finals and Murray loses his opening match.
Novak Djokovic, who has spent 223 weeks (fifth most all-time) at top spot during his career, would have returned to No. 1 had he won a fourth Wimbledon title. But after retiring today with an elbow injury early in the second set against Tomas Berdych, the Serbian has lost some of the momentum he had begun to build since reaching the Rome final. The four-time year-end No. 1 has 3,740 points to defend after Wimbledon, making a return to No. 1 this season a tough task. Just 12 months ago, coming into Wimbledon holding all four Grand Slam titles, it was difficult to foresee a time when he would not be at the pinnacle of the sport.
Federer, in avenging his 2016 semi-final defeat to Milos Raonic with an impressive straight-sets win over the Canadian on Wednesday, furthered his chances of pressing for the No. 1 spot in the second half of the season. And that’s only part of the good news for the Swiss. Federer has no points to defend after Wimbledon because his 2016 season ended after the grass season.
Also on Wednesday, Marin Cilic emerged as a darkhorse contender for No. 1 by taking out Gilles Muller in five sets to reach the semi-finals. It’s mathematically possible for the 2016 Cincinnati champion to go to No. 1 after the US Open if he wins Wimbledon and sweeps the US Open Series and the US Open, but he would also need rivals like Murray and Nadal to do very poorly during that period.
Current No. 3 Stan Wawrinka doesn’t appear to have a likely near-term pathway to No. 1 given his first-round loss at Wimbledon and the 2,000 points he will defend at the US Open.
Should Federer win his eighth Wimbledon title on Sunday, we will have a riveting three-way battle for World No. 1 during the US Open Series and US Open. If he does not, we’re at least guaranteed a two-man tussle between Murray and Nadal.
If Murray holds onto No. 1 through the back-to-back ATP World Tour Masters 1000 weeks in Montreal and Cincinnati, he likely will still be under pressure at the US Open. Stripping out the points earned during the 2016 US summer, Nadal will be 405-points ahead of Murray after the US Open if both players earn the same amount of points as each other this summer.
Looking longer term, Nadal and Federer currently look most likely to battle for the coveted year-end No. 1 Emirates ATP Ranking. Amazingly, the pair first finished No. 1 and No. 2 for six consecutive years between 2005-2010. The prospect of the players finishing No. 1 and No. 2 again after a seven-year break – and 12 years after they first did – would be remarkable.
The Emirates ATP Race To London, the calendar-year points race that began in January, best illustrates the massive lead the Spaniard and Swiss enjoy over their rivals. Nadal has 7,095 Race points after reaching the Wimbledon fourth round. Should Federer win the Wimbledon title, he will have 6,545 points, with Dominic Thiem a distant third with 3,345 points.
If Federer loses in the semi-finals to Berdych, he will trail Nadal by 1,830 points. Under that scenario, Cilic could win the title and move to third in the Race with 3,705 points… 3,390 points behind Nadal.

Federer looks to turn up heat on Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal

In addition to fighting for tennis’ ultimate prize in Sunday’s Wimbledon final, both Roger Federer and Marin Cilic will be playing for important rankings milestones.

Federer will, for the first time in almost 11 months, reclaim a place within the Top 3 of the Emirates ATP Rankings if he wins a record eighth title at SW19. But, more importantly, he will greatly boost his chances of returning to World No. 1 later this year after a remarkable comeback season. The Swiss slipped from No. 3 to No. 4 on 22 August last year and, after missing the remainder of the season after last year's Wimbledon, slipped to as low as No. 17 before winning the Australian Open in January.

Federer has remained in the Top 10 ever since, but slipped from No. 4 to No. 5 in recent months after skipping the clay-court swing to rest his 35-year-old body.

Should he win his 19th Grand Slam title Sunday, Federer will turn up the heat on Rafael Nadal in what increasingly looks like a two-man battle for the coveted year-end No. 1 Emirates ATP Ranking. Federer would move to No. 3 within 920 points of Nadal and to within 1,205 points of current World No. 1 Andy Murray. (Murray appears to have only a very remote chance of finishing the year No. 1 because he has 5,460 points to defend after Wimbledon following his stunning finish to the end of the 2016 season. In contrast, Nadal will defend just 370 points and Federer has no points to defend for the rest of the season.)

Federer holds the record for most weeks (302) spent at No. 1. He last held top spot in the first week of November, 2012.

Cilic is now at a career-high No. 6 in the Emirates ATP Rankings and will crack the Top 5 for the first time if he adds a second major to the US Open crown he won in 2014. Under that scenario, Federer would remain at No. 6.

Novak Djokovic will move ahead of Stan Wawrinka when the new rankings are released Monday. If Federer is the Wimbledon champion and leaps three places to No. 3, Djokovic will be remain at 4 while passing Wawrinka, who will slip to No. 5. Cilic will remain at No. 6. If Cilic wins the final, Djokovic will move to No. 3, Wawrinka will slip to No. 4 and Cilic will be No. 5.

Swiss celebrates 19th Grand Slam crown

The battle for No. 1 is now red hot. With his record eighth Wimbledon title on Sunday, Roger Federer greatly improves his chances of returning to World No. 1 later this year after celebrating his fifth tour-level title of the season at SW19.
On Monday, when the new Emirates ATP Rankings are released, Federer will climb to No. 3, the first time he's been inside the Top 3 in almost 11 months.
The Swiss slipped from No. 3 to No. 4 on 22 August last year and, after missing the remainder of the season after last year's Wimbledon, slipped to as low as No. 17 before winning the Australian Open in January.
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Looking ahead, however, it's likely Federer will rise even higher as he and Nadal look set to battle for the coveted year-end No. 1 Emirates ATP Ranking. Amazingly, the pair first finished No. 1 and No. 2 for six consecutive years between 2005-2010. The prospect of the players finishing No. 1 and No. 2 again after a seven-year break – and 12 years after they first did – would be remarkable.
On Monday, Federer will be within 920 points of No. 2 Nadal and 1,205 points of current World No. 1 Andy Murray. But Federer has no points to defend for the remainder of the season, while Nadal has 370 points and Murray has a whopping 5,460 points to defend following his incredible run at the end of the 2016 season.
Recent history is on Federer's side: 11 of the past 14 Wimbledon champions have ended the year at No. 1.
Wimbledon Champion and Year-End No. 1s
Year
Wimbledon Champion
Year-End No 1
2016
Andy Murray
Andy Murray
2015
Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic
2014
Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic
2013
Andy Murray
Rafael Nadal
2012
Roger Federer
Novak Djokovic
2011
Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic
2010
Rafael Nadal
Rafael Nadal
2009
Roger Federer
Roger Federer
2008
Rafael Nadal
Rafael Nadal
2007
Roger Federer
Roger Federer
2006
Roger Federer
Roger Federer
2005
Roger Federer
Roger Federer
2004
Roger Federer
Roger Federer
2003
Roger Federer
Andy Roddick
Should Federer return to the top spot, he would join Pete Sampras with six year-end No. 1 finishes and become the oldest man to be No. 1. Federer, who turns 36 on 8 August, would surpass Andre Agassi, who was last No. 1 at 33 years old.
Federer debuted at No. 1 on 2 February 2004 and holds the record for most weeks (302) spent at No. 1. He was last on top during the first week of November 2012. Marin Cilic, who reached his first Wimbledon final, will remain at No. 6, a career-high for the Croatian.

ATPWorldTour.com looks at the top Movers of the Week in the Top 100 of the Emirates ATP Rankings, as of Monday, 17 July 2017

No. 3 Roger Federer, +2
The Swiss superstar captured a record-breaking eighth title at The Championships, Wimbledon, to break back into the Top 3 of the Emirates ATP Rankings for the first time since 15 August 2016. Read & Watch Report
With a straight sets win over Marin Cilic in the final, it marked his fifth tour-level title of the season and his 19th Grand Slam championship crown. It was Federer’s second major title without dropping a set (also 2008 Australian Open) and moves him firmly into contention for year-end No. 1 honours. Read Update
The ATP also announced today that Federer has qualified for a record 15th time for the Nitto ATP Finals, to be held at The O2 in London from 12-19 November. Read & Buy Tickets
No. 10 Grigor Dimitrov, +1
The Bulgarian returned to the Top 10 at No. 10 by virtue of reaching the Wimbledon fourth round (l. to Federer). This season he has won two ATP World Tour titles at the Brisbane International presented by Suncorp (d. Nishikori) and the Garanti Koza Sofia Open (d. Goffin). He reached a career-high of No. 8 on 4 August 2014 and has spent a total of 14 weeks in the Top 10.
No. 22 Gilles Muller, +4
The Luxembourg veteran, enjoying an Indian summer to his 16-season pro career, continues to break new ground by moving up to a career-high No. 22. With a 15-13 fifth set victory over Rafael Nadal in the Wimbledon fourth round, Muller fell to Cilic in his second Grand Slam quarter-final (also 2008 US Open) to complete the grass-court swing with an 11-2 match record. He captured his second ATP World Tour title at the Ricoh Open (d. Karlovic) on 18 June.
No. 23 Sam Querrey, +5
The American is now six spots shy of his career-high No. 17, attained on 31 January 2011. Querrey won three straight five-setters over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Kevin Anderson and World No. 1 Andy Murray en route to his first major semi-final at Wimbledon, where he lost to Cilic in four sets.
No. 35 Kevin Anderson, +7
The South African, who ranked No. 80 in the Emirates ATP Rankings on 16 January, continues to work hard in his comeback from a series of injury. Jumping seven spots to No. 35, as a result of his fourth Last 16 run (also 2014-15) at Wimbledon, Anderson lost to Querrey in five sets.
Other Top 100 Movers This Week
No. 37 Benoit Paire, + 9
No. 41 Adrian Mannarino, +10
No. 48 Aljaz Bedene, +10
No. 53 Steve Darcis, +8
No. 58 Jared Donaldson, +9
No. 61 Dusan Lajovic, +18
No. 73 Dudi Sela, +17
No. 74 Andrey Rublev, +21
No. 96 Ruben Bemelmans, +28
No. 98 Blaz Kavcic, +12
No. 99 Marton Fucsovics, +10

ATPWorldTour.com looks at the top Movers of the Week in the Top 100 of the Emirates ATP Rankings, as of Monday, 24 July 2017
No. 33 David Ferrer, +13
Former World No. 3 Ferrer kept his emotions in check to capture his third SkiStar Swedish Open title on Sunday, marking his first trophy since October 2015 at the Erste Bank Open 500 in Vienna. The Spaniard rose 13 places to No. 33 with his 27th tour-level crown. He is fifth in the active title-leaders list, behind only the ‘Big Four’. Read Report
No. 49 Andrey Rublev, +25
#NextGenATP Rublev soared 25 spots to break into the Top 50 of the Emirates ATP Rankings as a result of securing his first ATP World Tour title at the Plava Laguna Croatia Open Umag (d. Lorenzi). Read Report

The 19 year old also moved up to No. 3 in the Emirates ATP Race To Milan for a spot at the Next Gen ATP Finals in November. More & Buy Tickets
View Latest Emirates ATP Rankings
No. 67 Alexandr Dolgopolov, +22
Dolgopolov saved two match points in his 7-6(2) deciding set quarter-final win over #NextGenATP Karen Khachanov en route to the SkiStar Swedish Open final, where he lost to Ferrer. The Ukrainian was rewarded for a place in his eighth ATP World Tour final (3-5 record) with a 22-place rise to No. 67. It's his highest position since 20 March 2017.
No. 71 Andrey Kuznetsov, +17
The Russian reached his third ATP World Tour semi-final of the year (also the Sydney International and Banque Eric Sturdza Geneva Open) in Bastad (l. to Dolgopolov) to move up 17 places to his highest ranking since 10 April 2017.
No. 84 Alessandro Giannessi, +20
The Italian, who first broke into the Top 100 at No. 99 on 19 June 2017, advanced to his first ATP World Tour semi-final in Umag (l. to Lorenzi), where he contested four straight three-set matches. The 27 year old jumped to a career-high of No. 84 with a 20 place rise.
Other Top 100 Movers This Week
No. 91 Laslo Djere, +15
No. 95 Henri Laaksonen, +5