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Saturday, January 26, 2013 /by Steve Tignor

MELBOURNE—Novak Djokovic vs. Andy Murray may not be a network executive’s dream, and it may or may not be the future of men’s tennis. But it is the final that make sense here and now. By here, I mean on the medium-paced hard courts of Melbourne. By now, I mean now that these two junior rivals who were born a week apart have reached the ripe age of 25, and the peak of their powers.

Djokovic and Murray will contest their second straight Grand Slam final, and their second Australian Open final in three years. They’re currently ranked No. 1 and No. 3, but could be 1-2 before long. They know each other well—today Djokovic gave us his memories of Murray at age 11: "He had a lot of hair," and "was quite pale." (Some things don't change, do they?) They’ve already played 17 times as pros, seven times in 2012 alone. Djokovic leads 10-7 lifetime, and was 4-3 against Murray last year. They split their last two matches at Slams, each of which went five sets.

So while you may miss Roger Federer and/or Rafael Nadal, this one should be competitive, as well as an exhibition of the best that tennis has to offer in the here and now. There’s also a little (semi-obscure) history to be made. Djokovic will attempt to become the first man in the Open era to win three straight Australian Opens, while Murray will try to be the first man to win his maiden major and immediately follow it up with another.

Here’s a four-point breakdown of what we might see.

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Form

Who had the more impressive semifinal showing? Djokovic’s 89-minute blowout of David Ferrer was hard to top, but Murray’s performance, in which he came a few points from winning five straight sets from Federer, came close. Each arrives in the final having been seriously tested once—Murray by Federer, Djokovic by Stan Wawrinka in the fourth round. Each also appears to be peaking at the right time; Djokovic and Murray both played their best tennis of the tournament in the semis.

If one player has upped his level from last year, it’s Murray. He looks stronger and faster, and he’s serving as well as he ever has. But Djokovic still carries the confidence of having finished 2012 as the clear No. 1. He’ll also have had 24 hours more rest than Murray. Couple that with his short semi and Murray’s four hours on court with Federer, and Djokovic should have an advantage if this match goes long. But as we’ve seen so far here, a day of rest, which Murray will have, can make a player pretty close to brand new again.

One variable: The after-effects of Djokovic’s semifinal performance. You might think that his high level against Ferrer will carry over to the final, but his play on Thursday was partly a product of his supreme confidence against Ferrer—he looked utterly sure of victory from the start. Djokovic won’t have that swashbuckling confidence in the first set against Murray. If Novak doesn’t play as well, will that frustrate him? Or, if he does win the first set and relax, will he find that scary groove again?

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History

As I wrote above, there wasn’t much between these two in 2012. Djokovic won four times, Murray won three; they split their five-setters at Slams; and while Novak won their last two contests, in Shanghai and London, in the first match he had to save match points, and the second one went to 7-5 in the third set.

On the one hand, Djokovic did win both times, which could be seen as a sign for tomorrow. On the other hand, through the years these two have tended to go back and forth in the winner’s column. This might make you think it’s Murray’s turn to have a little good fortune at a crucial moment.

In my opinion, the one factor, history-wise, that could make a difference in this match is Djokovic’s loss in the U.S. Open final. Novak is No. 1, he’s used to being No. 1, he likes being No. 1, but if he loses to Murray tomorrow, he’ll be a No. 1 without a current major title to his name. Worse, he’ll have come up short to the same lower-ranked rival two straight times in the matches that are supposed to define the careers of top players. That sounds like a motivating factor to me.

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Appeal

Of all of the various match-ups between the Big 4, Murray vs. Djokovic offers the least stylistic contrast. Both men are defenders and runners and counterpunchers at heart. Between them, they define a lot of what we think of as the style of modern men’s tennis.

Their face-offs are full of long rallies and frustration on both ends—each gets on the other nerves with his retrieving and returning skills. My favorite of their matches from 2012 was the Shanghai final, where Djokovic saved match points to win in three sets. Their three-out-of-five-setters were messier, stop-and-start, break-filled wars of attrition that caught fire only sporadically. Tomorrow is a chance for Djokovic and Murray to stamp themselves in the public's mind as rivalry to watch.

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Pick

We can be pretty sure of what we’re going to get from Djokovic. He’s won this tournament the last two years, and he’s playing in his seventh final in the last nine Grand Slams. He came out flat against Wawrinka a week ago, but that should help him guard against another slow start Sunday. At Flushing Meadows last fall, he was bothered by the wind, but he’s never looked anything less than comfortable in Rod Laver Arena.

As for Murray, he’s also becoming an old hand at big finals. Counting the Olympics, this is the fourth in a row that he’s reached. The big variable for him, and the biggest in the match, will be his serve. Murray's 21 aces gave him a serious lift against Federer. Will he be able to repeat that performance? The serve is the least predictable stroke from one match to the next. If he does serve well, will Djokovic, the best returner in the game, be able to neutralize it in a way that Federer couldn't?

These are the questions. Only Muzz and the Djoker can give us the answers on Sunday. I’ll take Novak in five.

AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2013
Australian Open Diary: Becker Backing Murray
Melbourne, Australia


Andy Murray has the backing of 1991 and 1996 Australian Open champion Boris Becker to beat Novak Djokovic in Sunday's final.

ATPWorldTour.com takes a look at the news and talking points at the Australian Open on the second Saturday.

Becker Backing Murray
Former World No. 1 Boris Becker is backing Andy Murray to beat Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open final on Sunday and become a multiple major winner.

Writing a column for London’s Daily Telegraph newspaper, the German said, “The most significant change in the entire men’s game over the past 18 months has been Murray’s improvement and development. This is why I predict he will win his final in Melbourne against Novak Djokovic on Sunday.

“I expect it to be a similar type of match to the US Open final, a nail-biter over four or five sets, but deep down Murray knows he has what it takes to beat the defending champion.

“But Murray will not need any reminding that he is playing against the World No. 1, a five-time Grand Slam champion. Crucially, he also knows that he is playing the same man whom he beat in his last major final.”

Hutchins Receives Murray's Support
Ross Hutchins has revealed in his Daily Mail newspaper column that he has been chatting to Murray “more or less every day” since he was diagnosed with Hodgkin's lymphoma. “We talk about his games, he asks me how I’m doing and we swap whatever funny things have happened to either of us that day,” said Hutchins.

“My treatment is going okay. I feel good. I had my second session of chemo on Thursday and that leaves you with a few headaches and chest pains. But it’s nothing too drastic. I’m doing all I can to eliminate side-effects so that the drugs can work inside me.

“That means healthy eating, sleeping properly and exercise. Seeing him get to the final does help me. Watching such a close friend doing well makes me happy. It puts a big smile on my face and lifts my spirits.”

A Quick Turnaround For The Bryans
Bob Bryan and Mike Bryan will have a quick turnaround ahead of their next challenge, helping the United States beat Brazil in the Davis Cup first round, in Jacksonville, from 1-3 February.

After the duo captured their 13th major doubles title, Bob Bryan said, “I [will] go to Auckland, to Los Angeles, drop the family off in Miami, spend the night with them, pick up some shoes. I have no shoes on right now. Go up to Jacksonville on Monday morning [and] practice an hour later. There's only one indoor court up there. We're going to be spending some long days on that court.

Courier, Wilander Recall Their Title Memories
Jim Courier and Mats Wilander both spoke of their title successes at the Australian Open, during a legends lunch celebrating the career of Roy Emerson.

Wilander first picked up the title as a wild card in 1983, beating Ivan Lendl in the final. “That was the first time I really felt like I could play with the best players in the world on the surface that I usually played soccer on, or mini-tennis,” Wilander told the tournament website. “It was also the first time that I saw people paint their faces in their country’s colours.”

Courier recalled jumping into Melbourne’s Yarra River after clinching the 1992 and 1993 titles.

“The first year I had no idea it was the 18th-most polluted river in the world,” said Courier. “No one told me that until the next day ... it’s probably going to hurt the freckles, so that can’t be good.

“But superstitions are superstitions, and we went with it again, my coach and I decided to go in. When you win a tournament like this you have to celebrate. I have such great memories and it’s great to be back here again.”

Kyrgios Becomes Junior Champion
Nick Kyrgios became the boys’ champion after he beat his close friend and fellow Australian Thanasi Kokkinakis 7-6(4), 6-3 in the final.

"I'm going to take a lot of confidence out of this," said Kyrgios. "[There's] still a long way to go, it's a long journey, anything can happen, but right now I'm really happy … It was obviously a great experience being out there knowing that [Roger] Federer and Murray were grinding it out the night before."

Kyrgios is the fourth Australian to win the boys’ title in the past seven years, behind Brydan Klein (2007), Bernard Tomic (2008) and Luke Saville last year.