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Italian takes 12-0 season record into the year's first ATP Masters 1000
March 04, 2024
Jannik Sinner is No. 3 in the PIF ATP Rankings.Peter Staples for ATP Tour
Jannik Sinner is No. 3 in the PIF ATP Rankings.
By Craig O'Shannessy
The holy grail of tennis is not consistency.

Instead, it is 'first strike'. The first two times you touch the ball in a point are more important than everything that follows.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Jannik Sinner’s triumphant 2024 Australian Open campaign identifies the 22-year-old Italian forged his advantage much more in shorter rallies than longer ones. As he looks to extended his perfect 12-0 season at the year's first ATP Masters 1000 at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells this week and next, Sinner is likely to stick to his aggressive approach in pursuit of this third consecutive title.

This hidden truth of 'first-strike' tennis played out in greater detail in Sinner’s dazzling Australian Open semi-final victory against the No. 1 in the PIF ATP Rankings, Novak Djokovic, and against World No. 3 Daniil Medvedev in the final.

Sinner is the latest iteration of what it takes to win at the pinnacle of our sport: Dominate the more abundant short rallies, weather the storm in the longer ones, take home the silverware.

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Three Rally Lengths
The length of the rally can be divided into three distinct segments.

0-4 Shots (First Strike)
5-8 Shots (Patterns Of Play)
9+ Shots (Extended Rallies)

The first thing to examine is volume. Which rally length did Sinner play the most?

Sinner Total Points Played In Seven Matches
0-4 Shots = 59%
5-8 Shots = 24%
9+ Shots = 17%

Sinner played considerably more points in the 0-4 shot rally length (59%) than the other two longer rally lengths combined (41%). Sinner’s 0-4 percentage played was not as high as the tournament average of 66%, but it very much represented the lion's share of his points.

Sinner Total Points Played vs. Djokovic & Medvedev
0-4 Shots = 56%
5-8 Shots = 26%
9+ Shots = 18%

You would expect Djokovic and Medvedev to strategically extend rallies against Sinner, to wear him down in prolonged baseline exchanges and avoid his strong suit in shorter rallies. It didn’t materialise, as 9+ shot rallies only rose one percentage point (17% to 18%) against the duo.

But rally length totals only tell part of the story. The winning performance (points won vs. lost) at each rally length highlighted the Italian's specific areas of expertise and his desire to force opponents to miss early in the point, rather than be patient and wait for them to miss later.

Sinner Points Won/Lost In Seven Matches
0-4 Shots: 467 won/355 lost = +112 (57% won)
5-8 Shots: 180 won/151 lost = +29 (54% won)
9+ Shots: 123 won/116 lost = +7 (51% won)


Sinner significantly outperformed his rivals in the 'first strike' rally length, winning a sizeable 112 more points (467 won/355 lost) than he lost. He also won a higher percentage (57%) of these rallies than in the 5-8 shots and 9+ shots segments. To the eyeball test, Sinner looked like he dominated in long rallies just as much as shorter ones during the Aussie Open fortnight, but he actually only won seven more points than he lost (123 won/116 lost) in 9+ shot rallies through seven matches.

Our eyes deceive us. A spreadsheet doesn’t.

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Sinner Points Won/Lost vs. Djokovic & Medvedev
0-4 Shots:162 won/124 lost = +38 (57% won)
5-8 Shots: 63 won/69 lost = -6 (48% won)
9+ Shots: 45 won/ 46 lost = -1 (49% won)

When the point was extended to five shots or longer, Djokovic and Medvedev took the honours against Sinner, winning seven more points (115 to 108). It was the Italian who dominated the 'first strike' rally length, crafting a tournament-winning 38-shot advantage (162 to 124). Once again, the highest percentage of points won for Sinner was in the 0-4 shot rally length, at 57%.

It’s important to recognise that Sinner and his opponents only hit the ball in the court a maximum of two shots each in the abundant 0-4 shot rally length. Tennis feels like a sport where dominance in longer rallies is more important than shorter rallies. It’s not. Short rallies simply represent the biggest piece of the pie.

Learn how has a chance to make a big move at Indian Wells
March 05, 2024
Jannik Sinner is No. 2 in the PIF ATP Live Rankings.ATP Tour/Getty Images
Jannik Sinner is No. 2 in the PIF ATP Live Rankings.
By ATP Staff
Jannik Sinner enters the BNP Paribas Open as the No. 2 player in the PIF ATP Live Rankings, moving ahead of rival Carlos Alcaraz.

One year ago, Alcaraz defeated Sinner in the Indian Wells semi-finals and went on to lift the trophy. The Spaniard is defending 1,000 points compared to 360 for Sinner. With those points dropped, Sinner has 7,910 points compared to 7,805 for Sinner.

This year’s Australian Open champion is also in the best form of his career. The 22-year-old is 12-0 in 2024 behind his triumph at Melbourne Park and title run in Rotterdam. Sinner has won 25 of his past 26 matches overall. Although he is No. 3 in the PIF ATP Rankings — the 52-week rankings — he is in good position to pass Alcaraz after Indian Wells.

The 2023 Nitto ATP Finals runner-up Sinner will begin his tournament against home favourite Marcos Giron or Australian Thanasi Kokkinakis. He could face 25th seed Jan-Lennard Struff in the third round.

One year ago, Sinner competed at Indian Wells as the World No. 13. Now Alcaraz will need to make the quarter-finals in the California desert just to have a chance of keeping Sinner from ascending to World No. 2. The Spaniard opens his event against a Next Gen ATP Finals presented by PIF alumnus: Matteo Arnaldi or Luca Van Assche.

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World No. 1 Novak Djokovic is in good position to maintain his spot atop the PIF ATP Rankings in the near future. The Serbian did not compete in Indian Wells or Miami last year and is not dropping any points. He will play Australian Aleksandar Vukic or a qualifier in the second round.

With last year’s Indian Wells points dropped from the PIF ATP Live Rankings, Djokovic leads No. 2 Sinner by 1,765 points.

Several stars have opportunities to make moves with big results. Alex de Minaur, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Ben Shelton all lost in the second round last year at Indian Wells, giving them a chance to surge in the PIF ATP Live Rankings.

De Minaur is one of the most in-form players on the ATP Tour, having triumphed at the ATP 500 in Acapulco and reached the final in Rotterdam. The Australian is No. 10 in the PIF ATP Live Rankings, but within 470 points of No. 7 Holger Rune.

Tsitsipas recently fell out of the Top 10. However, the Greek, No. 11, is only 45 points behind De Minaur and can surge well into the Top 10 with a big effort in the California desert.

In recent months, a feel-good story on the circuit has been the resurgence of Grigor Dimitrov, the former World No. 3 and 2017 Nitto ATP Finals champion. The Bulgarian is live No. 12 and 365 points behind De Minaur. He is trying to return to the Top 10 for the first time since the week of 29 October 2018.

Shelton just became the No. 2 American and is live No. 16, three spots and 715 points behind American No. 1 Taylor Fritz, the 2022 Indian Wells champion.

Jannik Sinner and Andrey Rublev lead a host of Top 20 singles stars singed up to play doubles at the BNP Paribas Open… and will face each other in the first round. Sinner, who starts the tournament at a career-high No. 2 in the PIF ATP Live Rankings, will partner fellow Italian Lorenzo Sonego in an opening clash with Rublev and Karen Khachanov.

Sinner played two tour-level events with Sonego last year, joining forces in Adelaide and Indian Wells. They also partnered at the Davis Cup Finals, where they took out Novak Djokovic and Miomir Kecmanovic in the semi-finals en route to Italy's first Davis Cup title since 1976.

Khachanov and Rublev teamed eight times in 2023, with a title run coming in Madrid and a semi-final appearance in Beijing.

View Doubles Draw

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The winning team will then meet home favourites Christopher Eubanks and Ben Shelton or fifth seeds Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos. Atop the draw and placed in that same quarter, top seeds and defending champions Rohan Bopanna and Matthew Ebden will start against Sander Gille and Joran Vliegen.

Among the other singles players pulling double duty this fortnight, American No. 1 Taylor Fritz is partnering Jiri Lehecka. Fourth seeds Santiago Gonzalez and Neal Skupski clash against Francisco Cerundolo and Cameron Norrie in the opening round.

Australians Alex de Minaur and Alexei Popyrin meet third seeds Rajeev Ram and Joe Salisbury in the first round, with the winner set to face Felix Auger-Aliassime and Sebastian Korda or Lloyd Glasspool and Jean-Julien Rojer.

In the bottom quarter, Grigor Dimitrov and Daniel Evans meet Marcelo Melo and Alexander Zverev. Second seeds Ivan Dodig and Austin Krajicek open against Tallon Griekspoor and Hubert Hurkacz.

American Steve Johnson will bid farewell to his career this fortnight alongside Tommy Paul. The wild card duo starts against Wesley Koolhof and Nikola Mektic.

Italian is a pristine 12-0 this season
March 07, 2024
Jannik Sinner advanced to the Indian Wells semi-finals as the 11th seed in 2023.Andrew Eichenholz/ATP Tour
Jannik Sinner advanced to the Indian Wells semi-finals as the 11th seed in 2023.
By ATP Staff
Jannik Sinner began his 2024 season by winning his maiden Grand Slam title at the Australian Open, beating Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev in the final two rounds. Two weeks later in Rotterdam, he backed that up by winning the Dutch ATP 500 trophy, losing just one set along the way.

That success has lifted the Italian to a career-high of No. 3 in the PIF ATP Rankings, and he can pass Carlos Alcaraz for No. 2 by matching or bettering the Spaniard's result at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. But even as he looks back on a perfect 12-0 start to this year, Sinner sees plenty of room to grow.

"I think tennis is a good sport because you can always set new goals," he said Wednesday in his pre-tournament press conference. "It doesn't really matter what kind of title you win. The next week is a good week and a good opportunity to do again something great.

"In my mind, I know that there are some important points for me to have a better ranking. This kind of motivation just keeps pushing me and of course, even more importantly, it's to become a better tennis player throughout every week. So we will work. It doesn't matter what the result is in the tournaments, we will keep working and hopefully I can get to 100 per cent in every single department."

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That's not to say that Sinner and his team, headed by coaches Simone Vagnozzi and Darren Cahill, did not celebrate their Australian Open triumph. But the party did not last long — even if the trophy is prominently displayed in what Sinner called his "really small" Monaco apartment.

“It took not so much [to reset]. I had to do a couple of things in Rome, but while I was in Rome, I was already in the gym working," he explained. "I always think and believe that you live in moments. It was a positive and special moment. But then after you have to do it over again. You have to wake up in the morning and work again. And if you lose, you live this negative moment, but you don't live your career with this.

"I have maybe a little bit different point of view of how to celebrate these kinds of things. Obviously, we had fun for one day, but then after everyone went home, and that's how we deal a little bit with all this."

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Sinner's red-hot form extends back to the end of 2023. He has won 25 of his past 26 matches, including three victories to lead Italy to last year's Davis Cup title. After Italian WTA player Jasmine Paolini said Sinner's success helped push her and Italian tennis forward, the Australian Open champ put his impact into the greater context of the sport in the proud nation.

"It started already years ago, starting from the women’s side with [Francesca] Schiavone and [Flavia] Pennetta," he said. "Then after Matteo [Berrettini] making the final of a Grand Slam [Wimbledon 2021], and [Fabio] Fognini won the Masters event in Monaco [in 2019].

"We have so many great players and for me it’s good and fun to be part of this group who tries to push the other players and to give them also different aspects of how to see things. Sometimes it's also really important and I just feel very lucky to be in this position, and hopefully I can help them in one way."

Sinner will bid to continue his inspiring season when he opens his Indian Wells campaign on Friday against Thanasi Kokkinakis.

Jannik Sinner’s sizzling form has arrived in the California desert.

The Italian on Friday showed no mercy to oust Australian Thanasi Kokkinakis 6-3, 6-0 in the BNP Paribas Open second round to extend his season record to 13-0.

"I felt like it was a bit breezy today, so it was tough to play, especially in the beginning because for me it's my first match here," Sinner said. "I think I can be very happy. He's a great opponent, a great player. He serves really, really big."

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Sinner was dominant from the baseline, specifically in the ad-court, where he resembled a brick wall off his backhand wing while waiting to crush run-around forehands.

The 22-year-old fought off Kokkinakis' lone break point at 2-2 in the opening set by hammering a 103 mph inside-in forehand winner. Sinner then found success by retreating his position on Kokkinakis’ second serve, buying him time to engage in rallies. He broke the World No. 99’s serve in a nine-minute eighth game and never looked back after a 54-minute opening set.

Sinner produced a squeaky clean second set, in which he lost the opening point before winning 13 consecutive points. Sinner won the final nine games of the match and dropped just five points across the second set.

Starting @BNPPARIBASOPEN with pure fire off the ground @janniksin has the 2nd best Fh & Bh #ShotQuality averages on tour, but today he was even better #TennisInsights | @atptour | @BNPPARIBASOPEN pic.twitter.com/bcs8fXziWr


Seeking his first Indian Wells trophy, Sinner has won 26 of his past 27 matches overall, with his maiden major triumph coming at the Australian Open and another title run in Rotterdam.

"You always can set goal after goal and then when you reach one goal, try to work hard for the next goal," Sinner said. "I feel like I still have to improve many things. Starting on court, the serve I also have to improve and trying to mix up the game. We worked before coming here a lot in the gym. These are the things that push me to do better and hopefully I can show this also on the court."

At No. 2 in the PIF ATP Live Rankings, Sinner next plays 25th seed Jan-Lennard Struff after the German beat Borna Coric 6-7(3), 6-2, 7-6(9). Struff saved two match points in the third-set tie-break. The 12-time tour-level titlist Sinner, who is seeking his second ATP Masters 1000 crown, is seeded to meet Ben Shelton in the fourth round and in the quarters fifth seed Andrey Rublev.