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5) Red-Hot Medvedev Faces Early Test: The fifth-seeded Medvedev has won his past 14 matches en route to an ATP Tour title hat-trick in Rotterdam, Doha and Dubai. Extending that red-hot run in Indian Wells will not be easy, however. The 27-year-old will face a high-quality home favourite — John Isner or Brandon Nakashima — in his opening match at an event where he holds a 6-5 record.
Medvedev Mixes It Up: Where Do Top-10 Players Serve At 15/0 Versus 0/15?
Spoiler:
When trailing 0/15, Medvedev hits 64 per cent of serves out wide
Do players change first serve strategy when serving at 15/0 versus 0/15?
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings from the 2022 season uncovers a wide variety of first serve strategies when ahead or behind on the scoreboard after only one point is played in the game. Players clearly factor in where they prefer to serve and where the opponent may be anticipating. Having a clever mix out wide, at the body, and down the T is all about staying a step ahead in the guessing game of first serve location.
But nobody flipped the switch more than Daniil Medvedev.
The 27-year-old former No. 1 is the hottest player on tour after winning Rotterdam, Doha, and Dubai leading into Indian Wells this week. He is on a 14-match win streak and has won 19 of 21 matches to start the season. His different first serve strategy at 15/0 versus 0/15 provides an insight into how he goes about his business of holding serve.
Serving 15/0
According to the Infosys ATP Stats Serve Tracker, Medvedev led the current Top 10 going down the T with his first serve at 15/0. He hit 56 per cent there, which was just slightly higher than Holger Rune at 55 per cent. The players who went the least down the T at 15/0 were Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz, who only went there 36 per cent of the time.
Andrey Rublev was the most prolific going out wide at 15/0, with 54 per cent of first serves hitting that location. The other two players at or above 50 per cent out wide were Taylor Fritz (52%) and Novak Djokovic (50%).
What’s fascinating is that five of the Top 10 hit their first serve down the T more, while the other five targeted out wide more.
Current Top 10: First Serve Location at 15/0 (2022 Season)
Player Wide Body T
D. Medvedev 41% 3% 56%
H. Rune 34% 11% 55%
C. Ruud 41% 6% 53%
S. Tsitsipas 41% 7% 52%
F. Auger-Aliassime 46% 5% 49%
N. Djokovic 50% 4% 46%
T. Fritz 52% 5% 43%
A. Rublev 54% 3% 43%
C. Alcaraz 40% 24% 36%
R. Nadal 46% 18% 36%
Serving 0/15
Medvedev switched lanes at 0/15 and became the player that served wide the most - the exact opposite of what he did at 15/0, being the most prolific with T serves. Medvedev hit 64 per cent of first serves out wide at 0/15 while only hitting 41 per cent at 15/0. When Medvedev needed the point at 0/15, initially pulling the returner wide off the court with his first serve was his primary strategy.
Nadal was the only other player to serve more than 50 per cent out wide at 0/15, at 54 per cent. You can certainly understand that logic with Nadal being left-handed. While the split was even at 15/0 with five players going more wide and five players going T, eight of the 10 players preferred to go down the T at 0/15. The most prolific down the T was Stefanos Tsitsipas at 64 per cent. Players at 50 percent or above down the T were Felix Auger-Aliassime (55%), Andrey Rublev (55%), Djokovic (53%) and Fritz (50%).
Current Top 10: First Serve Location at 0/15 (2022 Season)
Player Wide Body T
D. Medvedev 64% 0% 36%
R. Nadal 54% 15% 31%
C. Ruud 48% 0% 52%
T. Fritz 47% 3% 50%
N. Djokovic 41% 6% 53%
F. Auger-Aliassime 41% 4% 55%
H. Rune 41% 10% 49%
A. Rublev 39% 6% 55%
C. Alcaraz 31% 22% 47%
S. Tsitsipas 31% 5% 64%
Summary
Overall, five players (Medvedev, Djokovic, Fritz, Rublev and Alcaraz) changed their primary first serve location between wide and T when serving at 15/0 versus 0/15. The five players that kept the same primary location were Rune (T), Ruud (T), Tsitsipas (T), Felix Auger-Aliassime (T), and Nadal (wide).
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It’s fascinating to see the variety of serve locations at the two point scores based on preferred locations and the desire to hit it where the opponent does not think it is going to go. Medvedev will look to add to his 14-match win streak at Indian Wells starting this week. Winning the guessing game of serve location will once again be a part of his winning formula.
Medvedev Beats SoCal Native Nakashima To Extend Winning Streak
Spoiler:
Daniil Medvedev underlined his status as a hot favourite this week in the desert with a 6-4, 6-3 opening win against Brandon Nakashima on Friday night. The fifth seed entered the BNP Paribas Open as the ATP Tour's most in-form player, winning three consecutive titles and 14 straight matches, and his winning streak — now at 15 — was never in jeopardy thanks to an assured performance against the San Diego native.
Nakashima gave his home crowd plenty to cheer about, firing big forehands and defending brilliantly at times, and even hitting a tweener that his opponent volleyed into the net in set two. But Medvedev had all the answers when he needed them, saving all six break points against him to secure the win in one hour, 26 minutes at the year's first ATP Masters 1000.
"We had some good points," Medvedev said in his on-court interview. "That's probably the slowest hard court on the Tour. So many matches I see it's like rallies, rallies, rallies, so we're going to have some good points. There were some tough ones in the match, tough break-point saves. I'm happy that I managed to battle through."
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Medvedev won the opening set by breaking at love for 3-2, claiming the lone break point of the set, and he drove his advantage home with an instant break in set two. He then escaped 0/40 at 2-1 and 15/40 at 4-3 before wrapping up the win with his third break in seven chances.
"I feel like on such a court you cannot play your best tennis every point," Medvedev added. "That's why [there are] so many break points for everybody and so many opportunities. At the end of the day, you have to play your best... He also played great points so it was a good battle, especially more in the second set I would say."
Medvedev will next face Ilya Ivashka, who moved past 28th seed Botic van de Zandschulp when the Dutchman retired while trailing 5-7, 2-3.