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See how the Top 10 stars stack up in first-serve rating
August 23, 2024
Alexander Zverev's hefty serve has helped him collect 22 tour-level titles.
ATP Tour
Alexander Zverev's hefty serve has helped him collect 22 tour-level titles.
By Craig O'Shannessy
First-serve statistics have always been split into two categories. Would it provide greater clarity to blend first-serves made and first-serves won into one match metric called first-serve rating?

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the two traditional first-serve statistics identifies that they tell a good story in their own right, but an improved narrative emerges once they are blended as one. A breakdown of the current Top 10 over the past 52 weeks sheds light on what a Serve Rating actually looks like.

Alexander Zverev is the peak performer with first-serves made over the past 52 weeks at an astonishing 72.4 per cent. He is about six percentage points clear of his closest rival Carlos Alcaraz (66.6 per cent), and well clear of the Top 10 average of 63.8 per cent. Zverev is on a first-serve planet all on his own.



First-Serve Rating of the Top 10 players in the PIF ATP Rankings
Top 10 Player In % Win % Rating
A. Zverev 72.4 75.2 54.4
H. Hurkacz 63.9 78.5 50.2
N. Djokovic 64.4 76.2 49.1
G. Dimitrov 62.7 78.1 49.0
J. Sinner 62.1 78.3 48.6
C. Alcaraz 66.6 71.9 47.9
A. Rublev 62.5 76.0 47.5
C. Ruud 65.0 72.6 47.2
D. Medvedev 62.9 74.0 46.5
A. De Minaur 55.2 72.7 40.1
AVERAGE 63.8 75.4 48.1

But Zverev only comes in sixth place in the data set when you examine points won behind his first serve, at 75.2 per cent. Hubert Hurkacz, at 78.5 per cent, was the leader in this specific category. Also ahead of Zverev were Jannik Sinner (78.3 per cent), Grigor Dimitrov (78.1 per cent), Novak Djokovic (76.2 per cent) and Andrey Rublev (76.0 per cent).

It’s impossible to figure out if Zverev is genuinely the best performer behind his first serve, from first place with first-serves made to just sixth place with first-serves won. That’s where the value of a Serve Rating comes to life.

Here’s how it works. You start by taking the first-serve made percentage and turn it into a whole number (72% to 72). You then take the first-serve won percentage and turn it into a decimal (75% to 0.75), and then multiply the two to get a rating out of 100.

Zverev's First-Serve Rating

• 72.4% made / 75.2% won
• First-Serve Rating: 72.4 (made) x 0.752 (won) = 54.4

Hurkacz's First-Serve Rating

• 63.9% made / 78.5% won
•First-Serve Rating: 63.9 (made) x 0.785 (won) = 50.2

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Simple math blends two statistics that have always been evaluated separately and turns them into a new match metric that provides more precise insight into the specifics of player performance.

Zverev emerges as the peak performer in the Top 10 with his first serve over the past 52 weeks with a 54.4 rating. Hurkacz (50.2) was the only other player to clear the benchmark of 50, while Djokovic (49.1), Dimitrov (49.0), and Sinner (48.6) were all above the Top 10 average of 48.1.

The beauty of a first-serve rating is that it includes four outcomes of the first serve:

•1st-Serves In
•1st-Serve Faults
•Won the point
•Lost the point

A serve rating also provides valuable insight for players looking for specific areas to take their game to the next level. For example, Alex de Minaur and Daniil Medvedev were the only Top 10 players to appear below the average with first-serves made and first-serves won. Improving their first-serve rating to the Top 10 average of 48.1 would be an obvious goal. Getting more in and winning more will both move the needle in the right direction.

Can Alexander Zverev cap a strong year of Grand Slam performances with his maiden major title at the US Open?

The fourth seed made a solid start to his campaign on Monday in New York with a 6-2, 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-2 triumph against Maximilian Marterer. Zverev sent down 21 aces and converted six of 16 break points he earned to wrap a two-hour, 53-minute victory on Grandstand and set a second-round clash with Adam Walton or Alexandre Muller.

With victory against his fellow German Marterer, Zverev improved to 15-3 at the majors this year. The 27-year-old reached the semi-finals at the Australian Open, the championship match at Roland Garros, and the fourth round at Wimbledon, and his past history at the US Open suggests he is more than capable of forging a deep run this fortnight. Zverev reached his first Grand Slam final at the 2020 edition of the hard-court major before falling to Dominic Thiem.

Zverev is also competing in New York knowing that he can further boost his strong position in the PIF ATP Live Race To Turin. The 22-time ATP Tour champion is currently third behind Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz in his bid to secure a spot at the season-ending Nitto ATP Finals.