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There is a fascinating juxtaposition in our sport regarding Return Games Won.

If you analyse the best player in this specific metric at the end of each season since 1991, you would see there is real improvement being made in recent years on the return side of the net.

But if you expand the data set to include the leading 40 players each season with Return Games Won, you would come to a very different conclusion. An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Return Games Won since 1991 (when statistics were first kept in tennis) to this season uncovers two very conflicting results.

Leading Player - Return Games Won 1991-2018

The line in the sand is very clearly at the turn of the century. The leading six seasons for the player that led the tour with Return Games Won have all been since 2000, with three of them since 2010.

Return Games Won: Season Leader Since 1991

#

Year

Tour Leader / Return Games Won

Win Percentage

1

2016

R. Nadal

40.75%

2

2011

N. Djokovic

38.84%

3

2003

G. Coria

38.73%

4

2012

R. Nadal

37.70%

5

2005

R. Nadal

37.54%

6

2004

F. Volandri

37.46%

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Novak Djokovic’s breakout season in 2011 – when he won three majors and five ATP World Tour Masters 1000s – was underpinned by his tour-leading 38.84 Return Games Won percentage.

You would naturally think because these players are putting up ever-increasing totals that the same must be for the rest of the tour. It’s simply not so when you look at the bigger data set.

Leading 40 Players - Return Games Won 1991-2018

This is much more an examination of the depth of our game regarding proficiency breaking serve. This analysis is an average of the leading 40 players with Return Games Won each season since 1991, and it uncovers a vastly different result than the examination of the season’s tour leader.

Return Games Won: Average Of Leading 40 Players Since 1991

#

Year

Win Percentage

Leading Player & Win Percentage

1

1991

29.69%

M. Gustafsson (36.48%)

2

1994

29.14%

A. Berasategui (36.83%)

3

1993

28.94%

A. Agassi (37.34%)

4

1995

28.75%

T. Muster (35.92%)

5

1992

28.74%

M. Chang (36.70%)

6

1996

28.55%

M. Chang (35.28%)

All six of the leading categories now occur before the turn of the century, with 1991 - the first year that records were kept - producing the highest Return Games Won percentage by the leading 40 players.

When you compare apples to apples - with the Top 40 Return Games Won average from the past six years (2013-18) and the first six years (1991-96) - you uncover just how big the disparity has become.

Top 40 Average - Six Year Period
1991 - 1996 = 28.97%
2013 - 2018 = 23.96%

A substantial 5.01 percentage point gap exists between the two periods.

One conclusion that we may draw is that while some players are definitely breaking serve more often, not everyone is progressing at the same rate. And when you look at the players bucking the overall downward trend in recent years, it reveals one important reason why they are finding separation from their opponents.

W meczach z Novakiem Rafa nie ma przewagi mentalnej, jaką posiada w pojedynkach z innymi tenisistami - powiedział Carlos Moya, trener Rafaela Nadala, przed finałem Australian Open 2019, w którym jego podopieczny zagra z Novakiem Djokoviciem.
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Rafael Nadal o finale Australian Open. "Nie byłem w stanie dać z siebie czegoś ekstra"
W niedzielę Rafael Nadal zmierzy się z Novakiem Djokoviciem w finale Australian Open 2019. Dla Hiszpana będzie to 25. w karierze występ w meczu o tytuł imprezy Wielkiego Szlema. Jeśli zwycięży, zdobędzie 18. mistrzostwo i zostanie trzecim w dziejach tenisistą, który co najmniej dwukrotnie wygra każdy z czterech turniejów wielkoszlemowych.
- Djoković jest tenisistą, który wywiera na ciebie dużą presję - mówił trener Nadala, Carlos Moya, w rozmowie z hiszpańskim Eurosportem. - On wymusza na tobie bardzo wysoki rytm gry, ma najlepszy bekhend w rozgrywkach i bardzo dobrze porusza się po korcie.

Nadal wygrał z Djokoviciem 25 z 52 rozegranych meczów. Ale na nawierzchni twardej przegrał aż 18 z 25 spotkań, w tym siedem ostatnich z rzędu. - W meczach z Novakiem Rafa nie ma takiej przewagi mentalnej, jaką posiada w pojedynkach z innymi tenisistami - przyznał hiszpański trener.

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- Mamy plan. Ten, kto w większym stopniu narzuci rywalowi własne warunki, będzie miał większą szansę na zwycięstwo - dodał Moya.

Toni Nadal, wujek i były trener Rafaela, ocenił, że między jego bratankiem a Novakiem Djokoviciem nie ma aż takiej różnicy w umiejętnościach, jaką można było zobaczyć w niedzielnym finale Australian Open 2019. - To oszukańcza odległość - podkreślił.
Marcin Motyka
Marcin Motyka
29 Stycznia 2019, 08:45
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Getty Images / Michael Dodge / Na zdjęciu: Rafael Nadal i Novak Djoković, finalista i mistrz Australian Open 2019
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Rafael Nadal o finale Australian Open. "Nie byłem w stanie dać z siebie czegoś ekstra"
Finał Australian Open 2019 pomiędzy Novakiem Djokoviciem a Rafaelem Nadalem nie był wielką bitwą, jakiej spodziewało się wielu obserwatorów tenisa, lecz spektaklem jednego aktora. Serb zdominował Hiszpana i po 124 minutach rywalizacji zwyciężył 6:3, 6:2, 6:3, zdobywając 15. w karierze wielkoszlemowy tytuł.
"Oszukańcza odległość" - tak Toni Nadal, wujek i były wieloletni trener hiszpańskiego tenisisty, zatytułował opublikowany na stronie internetowej dziennika "El Pais" felieton, w którym poruszył temat niedzielnego pojedynku. W dalszej części tekstu czytamy: "Myślę, że wynik finału daje poczucie większej różnicy niż ta, jaka istnieje między nimi w rzeczywistości".

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Toni podkreślił, że Djoković był za dobry dla jego bratanka. "Djoković osiągnął perfekcję. Należy mu pogratulować gry na takim poziomie. Nadal natomiast nie grał tak dobrze jak we wcześniejszej fazie turnieju".

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"Od samego początku widzieliśmy Djokovicia gotowego do ataku i do uderzania z dużą prędkością" - kontynuował trener. "To prawda, że zagrania Rafaela nie były takie, jak w poprzednich meczach, ale każda jego próba była kontrowana jeszcze lepszym zagraniem rywala. W wielu sytuacjach dobre uderzenia mojego bratanka były jak pożywienie dla Djokovicia".

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"Nie wiem, czy istnieje jakaś taktyka przeciw tak dysponowanemu rywalowi. Może radziłbym grać więcej przez środek kortu i przedłużać wymiany. Ale nie mam pojęcia czy było to możliwe ani czy dałoby efekt. Rafael od początku sezonu przyjął taktykę polegającą na maksymalnym skracaniu wymian i był wierny tej zasadzie" - ocenił.

"Djoković był doskonały, a mój bratanek nie potrafił stawić mu czoła. Byłoby to możliwe tylko wtedy, gdyby zaprezentował swoją najlepszą wersję. Tylko w tym przypadku widzielibyśmy epicki mecz, którego oczekiwałem i którego chciałem" - dodał Toni.

Nadal takes a 5-3 lead over Djokovic in the Italian capital
Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic have competed against one another at the Internazionali BNL d'Italia more than any other event in their epic FedEx ATP Head2Head rivalry. In their eighth meeting at the Foro Italico, Nadal took a 5-3 lead in their Rome rivalry with a 6-0, 4-6, 6-1 championship match victory.
ATPTour.com takes a closer look at Nadal and Djokovic's eight meetings in Rome:
2019 Final: Nadal d. Djokovic 6-0, 4-6, 6-1
Nadal entered his 50th Masters 1000 final pursuing his first trophy of any kind in 2019. The Spaniard had not taken that long to win a title since 2004, the year he claimed his first tour-level victory.
But Nadal would not be denied against Djokovic, the top seed. Although the Serbian saved all four break points he faced in the second set to force a decider, Nadal earned 17 break points in the match, and that proved the difference. Nadal won a higher rate of his second-serve points (61%) than Djokovic did his first-serve points (60%), helping him earn a title for the 16th consecutive year.
Djokovic spent two hours and 12 minutes of more time on court than Nadal entering the final, and that showed in his slow start as well as in the third set. The Serbian used his drop shot well throughout the week, but lost many of those points against Nadal with the trophy on the line, and the Spaniard showed no hesitation from the baseline, especially with his forehand down the line.
2018 Semi-final: Nadal d. Djokovic 7-6(4), 63
Entering the pair's first meeting in more than a year, Nadal was the clear favourite. The top seed had won 50 consecutive sets on clay — a record for the most sets claimed in a row on a single surface — before falling in the Madrid quarter-finals the previous week. And it was tough to tell how high Djokovic, still recovering from a right elbow injury, would be able to raise his level.
But the Serbian played excellent tennis, especially in the first set, comfortably finding the sharpest of angles from the backhand corner to give Nadal fits. But toward the end of the opening set, the Spaniard began to unleash his forehand down the line, therefore changing court positioning and taking control of baseline rallies, leading to his eventual victory.
It was an important win for Nadal, earning his 356th ATP World Tour Masters 1000 match victory to break a tie with Roger Federer (355) for the most in history. The 31-year-old also moved within one triumph of reclaiming the No. 1 spot in the ATP Rankings after dropping to No. 2 with his loss in Madrid. The triumph not only showed Nadal's great form, but also that Djokovic, despite competing in just his first semi-final of 2018, is on his way back to his top level.

2016 Quarter-final: Djokovic d. Nadal 75 76(4)
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The World No. 1 leads their FedEx ATP Head2Head rivalry 26-23. He also moved within two matches of winning his 30th ATP World Tour Masters 1000 title.

2014 Final: Djokovic d. Nadal 46 63 63
Djokovic pulled closer to Nadal in the battle for No. 1 in the Emirates ATP Rankings by claiming his third Rome title and 19th at the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 level. It was the Serb's second triumph over his rival in a Rome final, having prevailed in the 2011 title match.
Nadal entered their 41st encounter having spent over 10 hours on court through the semi-finals, but the seven-time champion showed no signs of fatigue in the early stages. He would surge to a double-break lead in the first set behind a ferocious offensive onslaught, and held on to take the opener in 46 minutes. In their previous 10 meetings, the player who had won the first set went on to win the match. Djokovic was ready to buck the trend, finding his range and rhythm in the second and third sets and turning the tables with a tenacious attacking display.
He would hold Nadal to winning under 28 per cent of second serve points won for the rest of the match, firing return winners with ease and standing tall on the baseline. Djokovic's 46 winners (including 15 from the backhand side) and six aces were too much for Nadal to overcome.

2012 Final: Nadal d. Djokovic 75 63
The pair contested the final at the Foro Italico for the third time, with Nadal coming out on top to avenge the defeat he had suffered at Djokovic’s hands a year earlier. With the final rained off on Sunday, it was below brighter skies on Monday that the pair took to court. Djokovic was under immediate pressure from Nadal. The Serb, who had beaten Roger Federer in the semi-finals, saved two break points in his opening service game before Nadal converted his fourth opportunity to lead 3-2.
Djokovic immediately recovered the service break, but was broken by Nadal again in the 11th game, after a scintillating exchange at the net, and the Spaniard sealed the opener. Nadal was quick to capitalise on his momentum, taking advantage of an increased unforced error count by Djokovic and dominating from the baseline as he broke in the first game of the second set. Djokovic squandered four break back points in the following game, and another in the fourth game, before surrendering the match in the ninth game after two hours and 20 minutes with his fourth double fault.
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2011 Final: Djokovic d. Nadal 64 64
One day after a thrilling semi-final win over Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic defeated defending champion Rafael Nadal for a second consecutive Sunday in a clay-court ATP World Tour Masters 1000 final. The Serbian broke the World No. 1 four times - including the final games of the first and second sets - to become just the second player (Davydenko) to record four straight victories against the Spaniard.
He also became the first player to win four Masters 1000 titles in one season since Nadal and Roger Federer claimed four apiece in 2005. On Saturday evening, Djokovic had come within two points of defeat before rallying to defeat Murray in a third-set tie-break. His streak of 39 successive tour-level victories following the Rome final was the sixth-longest winning streak in the Open Era.
2009 Final: Nadal d. Djokovic 76(2) 62
Two weeks on from their keenly contested match in the final of the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, Nadal and Djokovic met in an ATP World Tour final for the fourth time at the Internazionali BNL d'Italia in Rome. Nadal served for the first set twice, but each time was thwarted by a Djokovic determined to defend his title at the Foro Italico.
The Spaniard raised his level in the first-set tie-break though before breaking twice in the second set to secure his 30th consecutive clay-court victory and a record fourth Internazionali BNL d'Italia title after two hours and three minutes of play. Nadal’s victory had added significance for Djokovic, who will surrender his No. 3 South African Airways 2009 ATP Ranking to current No. 4 Andy Murray when the 2008 Rome points drop on 11 May.
2007 Quarter-final: Nadal d. Djokovic 62 63
Back on his beloved clay, two-time defending champion Rafael Nadal produced a devastating display to beat Novak Djokovic 6-2, 6-3 in one hour and 41 minutes. "I'm playing at my best level for sure," Nadal said after extending his Open Era record winning streak to 77 matches. "It was a very nice match. We were playing at 100 percent every point. Djokovic is very, very good player. He didn't play a bad match today. He served very well on the break points - unbelievable. Every time he beat me with the serve. But finally I played consistently, and that's decisive."