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World No. 3 pursuing his second Cincinnati title
Daniil Medvedev, the 2019 Western & Southern Open, is optimistic for an uptick in form in Cincinnati after a disappointing quarter-final exit in Toronto to eventual finalist Alex de Minaur.

“It's my last tournament before the US Open, important tournament, Masters 1000. In Toronto, unfortunately I didn't do everything that I wanted to do with my game,” Medvedev said. “So I have a couple of days to try to get it working here and then of course, most important is going to be to try to win the matches. The draw is pretty packed, I would say very strong, which is normal. So looking forward [to it].”

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Medvedev held leads against De Minaur in each set, but was unable to put away the Australian and paid for it with an exit in the last eight. But the good news for the No. 3 player in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings is that he believes he knows what was off with his game in Canada.

“I felt like I was missing a little bit one shot where I could just hit the guy straight away and put him in trouble,” Medvedev said. “So I'm going try to do this. Two, three days I have in practice and hopefully I can integrate it also during the tournament.

"But the thing is that the practice is so different to [the] tournament. So as I said, you try to work on something in practice, but it really doesn't matter [unless] you're going to be able to do it in the match. But that's what you're trying to do.”

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The 27-year-old will take confidence knowing he owns a 48-10 record this season and is in third place in the Pepperstone ATP Live Race To Turin, just 645 points behind second-placed Novak Djokovic.

Medvedev is trying to qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals for the fifth consecutive year. He has already won five titles this season, including ATP Masters 1000 victories in Miami and Rome.

This historically has been a good stretch of the season for Medvedev. Four of his six Masters 1000 triumphs have come from Canada through the end of the year. Despite his quarter-final loss in Toronto, he is ready to turn the page beginning with an intriguing clash against Washington champion Daniel Evans or Lorenzo Musetti.

“In Toronto, not a bad tournament, but I was not at my best,” Medvedev said. “So I hope... to try to raise my level higher and higher and to play at my best before the US Open.”

Former World No. 1 is better at defending short returns than any other player... by quite some margin!
Depth is Daniil’s diamond.

Daniil Medvedev’s unconventional, ultra-deep return position often sees him standing six metres or more behind the baseline to return first serves. What looks like a distinct disadvantage at first glance is actually a cleverly disguised trap. Medvedev is a peak performer at winning points against first serves compared to other elite players.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of return depth against first serves from the current Top 10 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings uncovers Medvedev’s paradoxical performance. Standing deep is not hurting him from returning deep, and in fact, he leads the Top 10 in one critical first-serve return statistic.

The data set comes from the Infosys ATP Return Tracker from the 2023 season (prior to Toronto) and focuses only on first-serve returns that land between the service line and baseline. Missed returns and returns in the service box are omitted.

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First-Serve Return Depth
The first thing to understand is that once the first-serve return has made it back past the service line, most of these returns land closer to the service line than the baseline. The current Top 10 average 61 per cent of their first-serve returns closer to the service line and 39 per cent closer to the baseline. Even though Medvedev returns from an ultra-deep location, he was tied for third best in this category.

Returns Landing Closer To Baseline Than Service Line
1. Jannik Sinner = 47%
2. Andrey Rublev = 46%
T3. Daniil Medvedev = 43%
T3. Stefanos Tsitsipas = 43%
5. Frances Tiafoe = 40%
6. Holger Rune = 38%
7. Novak Djokovic = 37%
8. Taylor Fritz = 36%
9. Carlos Alcaraz = 35%
10. Casper Ruud = 24%

It’s interesting to identify that Ruud is the other Top 10 player who stands in an ultra-deep location to return serve but does not average returning nearly as deep as Medvedev.

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First-Serve Return Win Percentage
Establishing that returns typically land closer to the service line than the baseline helps zero in on Medvedev’s first-serve return prowess. This is precisely where he leads this elite group of players with points won.

Points Won: Return Lands Closer To Service Line Than Baseline
1. D. Medvedev = 61%
2. C. Alcaraz = 53%
3. H. Rune = 52%
T4. A. Rublev = 50%
T4. N. Djokovic = 50%
6. F. Tiafoe = 48%
7. S. Tsitsipas = 47%
8. T. Fritz = 46%
9. J. Sinner = 43%
10. C. Ruud = 43%

Medvedev was head and shoulders above his peers with his win percentage in this category with 61 per cent of points won. The Top 10 average was just 49 per cent. Medvedev was eight percentage points clear of second-placed Alcaraz (61% to 53%) and was one of only three players to win north of 50 per cent.

Medvedev’s superior win percentage may very well boil down to his “defensive-ready” court position. When a return is hit shorter (landing closer to the service line), the server will naturally be looking to step in and attack. The returner will, in turn, look to move back to defend. Since Medvedev is already standing deep, he does not get as rushed or pushed onto his back foot as a typical returner who hugs the baseline.

Medvedev has cleverly pre-built in extra time for himself.

When the return did land closer to the baseline than the service line, Medvedev was the second-best performer in the Top 10.

Points Won: Return Lands Closer To Baseline Than Service Line
1. C. Alcaraz = 63%
2. D. Medvedev = 58%
3. N. Djokovic = 57%
T4. S. Tsitsipas = 54%
T4. A. Rublev = 54%
6. F. Tiafoe = 53%
7. H. Rune = 52%
8. J. Sinner = 50%
T9 T. Fritz = 44%
T9 C. Ruud = 44%

Medvedev’s first-serve return prowess defies standard convention. By standing so far back to return serve, he allows the ball to slow down and not rush him. He treats the return much more like a regular groundstroke than his competitors, who typically stand closer to the baseline, looking to rebound the ball quickly to the server to take their time away.

Medvedev shouldn’t be able to regularly return the ball so deep from so far back, but that’s precisely what he does. The vast expanses of Arthur Ashe Stadium at the US Open are tailor-made for him. He has plenty of room to roam as far as he wants to return.

It seems he is reacting, but he has discovered the art of dictating from the deep. Don’t be surprised to see Medvedev adding a second US Open title in New York this year.

2019 champion chasing third ATP Masters 1000 title of the year
Two clashes in the space of six days, two commanding victories for Daniil Medvedev against Lorenzo Musetti.

The third-seeded Medvedev produced a dominant 6-3, 6-2 triumph against the Italian on Wednesday at the Western & Southern Open to book his third-round spot in Cincinnati. Having also prevailed against Musetti at last week’s National Bank Open Presented by Rogers in Toronto, Medvedev now leads 2-0 in the pair’s Lexus ATP Head2Head series.

“I think it’s tough for anyone to be comfortable [quickly] here," said Medvedev of the fast Cincinnati courts. "Tough conditions here, they changed the court. But then it comes to being the better in the tough conditions, and that’s what I managed to do today.

“We both made some mistakes, we both made some double faults and stuff like this, but I managed to be a little bit better in important moments and actually I felt like I was playing better and better during the match. So that’s a positive thing for the next round.”


Aside from dropping serve in his opening game of the week in Ohio, Medvedev was rock-solid on the way notching his Tour-leading 23rd ATP Masters 1000 win of the season. He outhit Musetti by 25 winners to 10 in a 78-minute victory on Grandstand.

Cincinnati holds fond memories for Medvedev, who lifted the first of his six Masters 1000 crowns at the Lindner Family Tennis Center in 2019.

“It was my first Masters 1000 win, so always special memories [here],” said Medvedev. “Today was probably the coolest day I have ever seen in Cincinnati, so that was great and I hope all the week is going to be like this.”

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Medvedev’s third-round opponent as he chases his sixth tour-level title of 2023 will be 16th seed Alexander Zverev. The German downed Yoshihito Nishioka 7-5, 6-4 in his first meeting with the Japanese World No. 45 since 2015, converting three of 12 break points he earned for a one-hour, 57-minute win.

Thursday’s third-round clash will be the 16th Lexus ATP Head2Head meeting between Medvedev and Zverev. The former has triumphed in all three of their tour-level meetings in 2023, winning in three sets in Indian Wells and Monte-Carlo and in straight sets in Rome.

Both players seek a deep run in Cincinnati to boost their hopes of qualifying for the Nitto ATP Finals, although Medvedev is the better-placed of the two in the Pepperstone ATP Live Race To Turin. The 27-year-old is third and in a strong position to secure his fifth straight appearance at the season finale, while two-time Nitto ATP Finals champion Zverev lies 10th.