We have our 2016 Olympic champions: Monica Puig of Puerto Rico, who claimed a surprise gold in women’s singles, and Andy Murray of Great Britain, who became the first man in Olympic history to repeat as singles champion. Also, kudos to men’s doubles champions Rafael Nadal and Marc Lopez of Spain, women’s doubles winners Ekaterina Makarova and Elena Vesnina of Russia and mixed doubles titlists Bethanie Mattek-Sands and Jack Sock of the U.S.
So with the Olympics behind us and only the last two weeks of the Emirates US Open Series separating now and the US Open, let’s take a look at what we’ve learned coming out of the Summer Games in Rio:
Surprises could be in store at the US Open
The regularity with which the Big Four in men’s tennis and Serena Williams in women’s tennis have won Grand Slams in recent years has made each ensuing major seem like something of a foregone conclusion. This year’s Olympics reminded us that, even on the world’s biggest stages, this may not always be the case.
Puig made a run to the gold medal that was nothing short of stunning, and the women’s draw in general was upended early and often. Serena went down in a third-round, straight-sets upset to Elina Svitolina, and of the top eight players seeded to the quarterfinals, only two advanced that far – No. 2 Angelique Kerber and No. 7 Madison Keys – versus three that were unseeded.
Among the men, top seed Novak Djokovic lost in the first round – albeit to a refreshingly in-form Juan Martin del Potro – No. 5 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga went down in Round 2 and the quarterfinals included two unseeded players plus unheralded American Steve Johnson, seeded 14th, who took eventual gold medalist Murray to a deciding-set tiebreak. And it culminated with del Potro playing in his first final since winning the Sydney title in January 2014.
So what does it mean for the US Open? Upstarts have prevailed in Flushing Meadows more than any other Slam in recent years – del Potro in 2009, Sam Stosur in 2011, Marin Cilic in 2014 and Flavia Pennetta in 2015 – so don’t be surprised if Finals Weekend has a few fresh faces in 2016.
Murray is the hottest player in tennis right now
With Djokovic having won five of the last seven majors, it is probably a little premature to call Murray the outright US Open favorite right now. But he just might be the co-favorite.
Murray never played his best ball in Rio, but he summoned the best parts of his game when he needed them most, defeating del Potro in a quality final to become the first man to repeat as Olympic singles champion. Coupled with his second Wimbledon title earlier this summer and a victory at Queen’s Club just before that, and Murray is riding an 18-match winning streak. Factor in Rome and Roland Garros, and the great Brit is 29-1 in his last 30 matches – the only loss coming to Djokovic in the French Open final – with titles on clay, grass and hard courts.
So why not bestow favorite status on Murray? To this point, he has lost five matches in a row to Djokovic in Grand Slam play and is just 2-8 against him overall on the Slam stage. The good news? One of those wins came in the 2012 US Open final, which came right after Murray captured Olympic gold in London.
Monica Puig just became part of the US Open title conversation
Puig, 22, was the breakout star of the 2016 Summer Games. She dropped just 14 games in her first four matches – a run that included a 6-1, 6-1 victory over No. 3 seed Garbiñe Muguruza – and went on to defeat two-time Wimbledon champion and No. 11 seed Petra Kvitova and 2016 Australian Open champion and No. 2 Angelique Kerber to win the first-ever gold medal for Puerto Rico in Olympic play.
The run was a culmination of what has been a career season for Puig, who had seemed to stall in the 50-100 range of the world rankings in recent years. Already in 2016, she has vaulted from No. 92 to her No. 35 after qualifying and reaching the final in Sydney; advancing to the semifinals in Nottingham, Eastbourne and Florianopolis; and advancing to the third round at the Australian Open.
No ranking points were awarded at the Olympics, so her rank will remain unchanged, but tennis is a confidence game – and outside of Murray, no one can be as confident as Puig right now. A US Open title run might seem like a tall order for player who has advanced to the fourth round just once in 14 Grand Slam main-draw appearances, but Puig is a no-question talent who has already proved she has the goods to win against the best players in the world.
Welcome back Juan Martin del Potro
One of the most universally well-liked players in all of tennis, del Potro has been undone by injuries in recent years. A series of surgeries on his left wrist had many doubting he’d ever be the player he once was, able to crack titanic ground strokes off both wings. The long-term answer remains unclear, but in Rio the 6-foot-7 gentle giant demonstrated that he could still play with anyone in the men’s game.
Del Potro was simply brilliant in earning a well-deserved victory over Djokovic in the first round and showed tremendous mettle in outlasting Nadal in a third-set tiebreak in the semifinals – two of the most riveting matches in tennis this year – clubbing his forehand with a speed and precision that no one in tennis can match. Most importantly, his surgically repaired left wrist held firm and his two-handed backhand was percussive and precise. If the 2009 US Open champion can play in New York the way he played against two of the best players of all time, he is a very real title contender.
Welcome back, Take 2
Nadal entered the Summer Games having not played since pulling out of the French Open with a wrist injury, and he opened the Games by saying was not quite 100 percent but wanted to give it a go for the Olympics. And while his level was not quite in top form throughout, he displayed the forehand and the grit that won him two US Open titles.
Forced to play 11 matches in nine days due to his deep runs in singles and doubles, Nadal’s wrist seemed to hold up as well – and his game most certainly did. Competing for every point in his unmatched, trademark style, the Spaniard claimed gold in men’s doubles with Marc Lopez and advancing to the semifinals in men’s singles. After dropping an instant classic to del Potro in the semis, a clearly exhausted Nadal lost in three sets in the bronze medal match to Kei Nishikori. Regardless, his overall play for the week bodes very well for another deep run at this year’s Open.
The favorites may not be as heavily favored as we thought
It’s easy to overreact to one result, so there is some wisdom in pumping the brakes a bit here, but the indomitable pair of Djokovic and Serena appear as vulnerable as they have at any time in the last two seasons.
Williams seemed to overcome her surprising losses in the finals of the Australian Open (to Kerber) and the French Open (to Muguruza) with her victory at Wimbledon. But her desultory straight-sets loss to Svitolina means she has gone home title-less in three of the four biggest tournaments in 2016. Is she still the favorite in New York? Most likely if not certainly. But perhaps not the overwhelming favorite she has been in years past.
Djokovic, meantime, appeared to rebound from his stunning third-round loss to Sam Querrey at Wimbledon with a title at the Rogers Cup in Toronto. That set him in good stead to claim the one big prize lacking in his trophy case: a gold medal. But del Potro played brilliantly in ousting him in the opening round in Rio, and perhaps a bigger cause for concern, the world No. 1 pulled out of Cincinnati with a left wrist injury. As with Serena, Djokovic is an all-timer and remains the favorite in any tournament he enters – and that includes this year’s US Open – but the aura of invincibility is, if not gone, clearly diminished.
