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The shortlist contains just Roger and Novak.

Will Roger Federer win his third successive Australian Open title, or will Novak Djokovic win his third Grand Slam tournament in a row? These are the two players will set the pace on the hot hard courts Down Under this year, and until another player knocks them out, you can pencil them in as deep into the tournament as you want.

Federer’s formidable weapon is his serve, and he was second best on tour in 2018 in Service Games Won on hard courts, holding 90.2 per cent (497/551) of the time.

The new Infosys Serve & Return Tracker identified Federer’s favourite Deuce Court first-serve location on hard court in 2018 as out wide, where he directed 52.3 per cent of first serves, winning a formidable 78 per cent of those points. The Swiss also went wide in the Ad Court the majority of the time, hitting 50.5 per cent of first serves there, winning 79 per cent of the points.


Djokovic’s prowess is traditionally more on the return side of the equation, as he led the tour in 2018 with First-Serve Return Points won on hard courts, winning a commanding 33.2 per cent (629/1867) of first-serve returns from 37 matches. The World No. 1 has the best record on hard courts in the past 52 weeks, winning 83.3 per cent (31-6) of his matches.

What if they meet in the final? Djokovic certainly has the edge on paper, as he has won their last four battles (all on hard court), including the the semi-final of the 2016 Australian Open, which the Serbian won 6-1, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3.

So if Federer and Djokovic don’t take the title, who has shown good hard court form? Alexander Zverev certainly put his hand up as a contender at the end of 2018, defeating both Federer and Djokovic back-to-back on indoor hard court at the Nitto ATP Finals in London.

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Rafael Nadal is definitely the wild card Down Under this year. The World No. 2 won the Australian Open in 2009, and has been runner-up on three other occasions, including 2017, when he lost a thrilling five-set final to Federer. But this is the Spaniard's first tournament of the season. If he can regain fitness, he will be tough beat yet again.

There is a small group of players next in line who have impressive hard court resumes and a legitimate shot of going all the way in Melbourne the next two weeks.

Kei Nishikori won the Brisbane International on hard court to start the year, Marin Cilic was last year's Australian Open runner-up.

Who is most likely of the younger brigade (22 years old or younger) to have a breakthrough tournament? Keep an eye on Daniil Medvedev (22), Borna Coric (22), Karen Khachanov (22) and Alex de Minaur (19). Their time is coming, and there is no time like the present.

Serb and Frenchman have history at the Australian Open
If Novak Djokovic was hoping to ease his way into the 2019 Australian Open, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is not the man he would want to meet in the second round. So expect the World No. 1 to be on guard when the pair walks out for Thursday’s feature night match on Rod Laver Arena.

Tsonga, the 16-time ATP Tour champion and a 2008 Melbourne finalist, is arguably the most dangerous floater in the draw. He has the firepower to take it to the world's best and comes into the tournament in good form, having beaten Alex de Minaur en route to the Brisbane semi-finals.

"He's another great player, champion, someone that has been very successful in the past, an established Top 10 player who has played a Grand Slam final," Djokovic said of the 33-year-old. "[He's] just very powerful, serve, forehand, big weapons. I’m really optimistic, but also respectful, trying to do whatever I can to win it. "

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Ranked 177 after missing more than seven months due to knee surgery last April, Tsonga has given Djokovic trouble both times they have met at the Australian Open. The Frenchman pushed the Serb to a fourth-set tie-break in the title match in 2008, when Djokovic captured the first of his 14 majors. In 2010 Tsonga avenged that defeat with a five-set victory in the quarter-finals.

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Djokovic, of course, will still enter the match as a strong favourite. He is chasing a record seventh title at Melbourne Park, where he boasts a 61-8 record. The Serb, who suffered a surprise semi-final defeat to Spaniard Roberto Bautista Agut in the Doha semi-finals in the opening week of the season, began his Melbourne campaign with a confident straight-sets win over American Mitchell Krueger.

Earlier in the day on Rod Laver Arena, 2014 Australian Open champion Stan Wawrinka takes on 16th seed Milos Raonic. Fortunes will largely depend on the Raonic serve, which brought Nick Kyrgios to his knees in their first-round battle. "Never seen serving like that in my life," Kyrgios said. "I was just watching it literally going side to side."

Three-time Grand Slam champion Wawrinka takes a 4-2 FedEx ATP Head2Head lead over Raonic into the match, but the Canadian has won their past two meetings, including a straight-sets win in the US Open third round last year.

Fourth seed Alexander Zverev looks to reach the third round for the third straight year when he tackles Frenchman Jeremy Chardy, against whom he holds a 2-1 lead in their FedEx ATP Head2Head series.

At 39, Croatian Ivo Karlovic is looking to become the oldest man to reach the third round since Ken Rosewall did it aged 44 in 1978. But the ace king must find a way to beat eighth seed Kei Nishikori, who in the first round rallied from two sets down to defeat Kamil Majchrzak.

More Matches To Watch On Thursday

No. 7 Dominic Thiem (AUT) v (WC) Alexei Popyrin (AUS)
No. 11 Borna Coric (CRO) v Marton Fucsovics (HUN)
No. 12 Fabio Fognini (ITA) v Leonardo Mayer (ARG)
No. 24 Hyeon Chung (KOR) v Pierre-Hugues Herbert (FRA)
No. 25 Denis Shapovalov (CAN) v Taro Daniel (JPN)