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Swiss outperforms his Top 10 peers in key serving areas
In tennis, 30/30 is just like a fork in the road. One trail leads to almost guaranteed prosperity, while the other is basically a coin flip to decide if you are going to get out alive.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 from the 2019 ATP Tour season uncovers the vastly different fortunes resulting from winning or losing the point when serving at 30/30.
Roger Federer led the Top 10 last season with the highest percentage of service holds from 30/30, at 86.1 per cent (174/202). Surprisingly, Federer performed just as well in this specific metric on clay as he did on grass.
Federer defeated Steve Johnson 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 in his opening round of the 2020 Australian Open on Monday. Federer was taken to 30/30 three times during the match and won all three of those games.
2019: Federer Holding From 30/30
Surface Win Percentage
Grass 89.4% (42/47)
Clay 89.2% (33/37)
Hard 83.9% (99/118)
Federer’s metrics led the Top 10 group of players on clay and grass, while Novak Djokovic led the Top 10 holding from 30/30 on hard, winning 85.0% (96/113). Across all surfaces, the Top 10 averaged a 79.9 per cent (1840/2303) success rate serving at 30/30.
2019: Holding Serve From 30/30
Rank Player Win Percentage
1 Roger Federer 86.1%
2 Rafael Nadal 83.2%
3 Matteo Berrettini 82.8%
4 Stefanos Tsitsipas 81.8%
5 Roberto Bautista Agut 80.9%
6 Novak Djokovic 80.6%
7 Dominic Thiem 78.8%
8 Daniil Medvedev 78.0%
9 Gael Monfils 75.3%
10 Alexander Zverev 73.0%
- Total/Average 79.9%
If the server won the 30/30 point and surged to 40/30, their percentage chance of holding serve jumped above 90 per cent. But if they lost the 30/30 point and fell to 30/40, they now were statistically more likely to be broken than to hold.
2019 Top 10: Holding Serve From 30/30, 40/30 & 30/40
Score Win Percentage
30/30 79.9% (1840/2303)
40/30 93.3% (2368/2539)
30/40 49.0% (608/1240)
Federer again led the pack holding from 40/30 at 97.1 per cent, only losing seven service games out of 240 last season from this dominant score line. Roberto Bautista Agut was second out of the Top 10 holding from 40/30, at 96.1 per cent (224/233) with Rafael Nadal in third place at 94.8 per cent (202/213).
When the Top 10 lost the 30/30 point and dropped to 30/40, that’s when their average hold percentage dipped slightly under half, at 49.0 per cent (608/1240). The five players to battle over the 50 per cent mark were:
Player Win Percentage
Roger Federer 58.8% (60/102)
Rafael Nadal 58.3% (56/96)
Matteo Berrettini 56.6% (73/129)
Novak Djokovic 56.2% (59/105)
Dominic Thiem 50.4% (62/123)
30/30 is a crossroads between pleasure and pain. Making a first serve is always a good start.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
Bautista Agut Thrives Where Other Players Struggle
Spoiler:
Roberto Bautista Agut is slaying it on second serves to start 2020.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the Spaniard’s first month of the season identifies that he is leading the Tour in both second-serve points won and second-serve return points won.
Bautista Agut has played nine matches so far in 2020, going 8-1, including a perfect 6-0 at the inaugural ATP Cup.
Roberto Bautista Agut - January 2020
No. 1: Second-Serve Points Won = 60.66% (111/183)
No. 1: Second-Serve Return Points Won = 63.60% (152/239)
Impressively, Bautista Agut is the only player so far in 2020 to cross the 60 per cent threshold in either of the second-serve metrics.
Bautista Agut reached the third round at the Australian Open, defeating countryman Feliciano Lopez and American Michael Mmoh, before bowing out to Marin Cilic in a five-set thriller.
Performance around second serves was a key to all three of those matches. Combined, Bautista Agut won 57 per cent (57/100) of his second-serve points and 60 per cent (72/121) of his second-serve return points. Bautista Agut finished third highest in second-serve return points won at the Australian Open, and 15th best for second-serve points won.
In the final of the ATP Cup in Sydney, Bautista Agut defeated Dusan Lajovic 7-5, 6-1 to give Spain a 1-0 lead over Serbia. Bautista Agut won an extremely dominant 67 per cent (10/15) of his second-serve points and an even higher 73 per cent (16/22) of his second-serve return points for the match. Nothing mattered more to the final outcome than this specific battleground.
Bautista Agut was also in positive numbers in both metrics in the ATP Cup semi-final against Australia’s Nick Kyrgios, winning 54 per cent (7/13) of his second-serve points and 53 per cent (9/17) of his second-serve return points in the 6-1, 6-4 victory.
The following directional breakdown identifies where Bautista Agut served second serves during the ATP Cup, and his win percentages.
2020 ATP Cup: Bautista Agut Second-Serve Direction & Win Percentages
DEUCE COURT
2nd Serves Hit
2nd Serves Won
Win Percentage
Wide
8
7
88%
Body
11
5
45%
T
26
19
73%
Total
45
31
69%
AD COURT
2nd Serves Hit
2nd Serves Won
Win Percentage
Wide
12
6
50%
Body
11
8
73%
T
11
8
73%
Total
34
22
65%
In the Deuce court, Bautista Agut went primarily down the T with 26 second serves, winning 73 per cent (19). In the Ad court, he mixed far more, with 12 wide, 11 body and 11 down the T. Overall, Bautista Agut won 69 per cent (31/45) of his second serves in the Deuce court and 65 per cent (22/34) in the Ad court.
Bautista Agut is currently No. 12 in the FedEx ATP Rankings, with his career-high No. 9 coming last November.
In the next five months to Wimbledon, where he reached his first Grand Slam semi-final last year, he has only 695 points to defend, which represent just 29 per cent (695/2360) of his total ranking points. February through June represents a sweet spot in the Spaniard’s tournament calendar, where another push to a new career-high FedEx ATP Ranking is very likely.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
Raonic Tops Isner, Opelka, Karlovic In This Key Serving Stat
Spoiler:
Infosys ATP Insights shows how the Canadian overpowers opponents with his biggest weapon
Milos Raonic’s serve may be even better than we thought.
An Infosys ATP Insights deep dive into first- and second-serve performance only when players win their matches over the past two seasons identifies Raonic at the top of the tree in both categories. The data set is comprised of all players who had a minimum of 20 wins on Tour in the past two seasons combined.
Raonic has won 51 tour-level matches the past two seasons and accumulated win percentages behind first and second serves that simply have no peer.
2018/19: First-Serve Win Percentage When Winning The Match
Rank
Player
Win Percentage
Total
1
Milos Raonic
86.15%
1903/2209
2
Ivo Karlovic
85.13%
1053/1237
3
Sam Querrey
84.81%
1736/2047
4
Reilly Opelka
83.45%
1331/1595
5
John Isner
83.42%
3008/3606
6
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
83.32%
1409/1691
7
Marin Cilic
81.82%
2461/3008
8
Jan-Lennard Struff
81.50%
2004/2459
9
Kevin Anderson
81.34%
2703/3323
10
Feliciano Lopez
81.30%
1330/1636
The average first-serve win percentage when players won their match was 76.39 per cent (172,615/225,974). That metric is eight percentage points higher than the average when they lose their match.
You May Also Like: How Federer Uses New Balls To His Advantage On Hard Courts
Average First-Serve Points Won/Lost
Winning the match = 76.9%
Losing the match = 68.9%
Gap = 8 percentage points
Raonic’s tour-leading numbers also extend to second-serve points when winning the match, where he sits at 61.78 per cent (826/1337).
2018/19: Second-Serve Win Percentage When Winning The Match
Rank
Player
Win Percentage
Total
1
Milos Raonic
61.78%
826/1337
2
Rafael Nadal
61.42%
1492/2429
3
Roger Federer
61.35%
1578/2587
4
John Isner
60.51%
904/1494
5
Philipp Kohlschreiber
60.12%
680/1131
6
Yoshihito Nishioka
59.25%
410/692
7
Miomir Kecmanovic
58.82%
370/629
8
Alex de Minaur
58.47%
1142/1953
9
Novak Djokovic
58.41%
1559/2669
10
Juan Ignacio Londero
58.27%
398/683
The average second-serve win percentage when players won their match was 55.61 per cent (75,097/135,032). That metric is 8.7 percentage points higher than the average when they lose their match.
Average Second-Serve Points Won/Lost
Winning the match = 55.6%
Losing the match = 46.9%
Gap = 8.7 percentage points
Raonic had a strong run to the quarter-finals of the 2020 Australian Open, defeating Stefanos Tsitsipas and Marin Cilic along the way. He is currently No. 32 in the FedEx ATP Rankings, and most importantly, is healthy once again.
Where will he end 2020? With a serve like his, anything is possible.
2015: Tokio
2016: Rio de Janeiro, Indian Wells, Waszyngton, Chengdu, WTF
2017: Doha, Sydney, Dubaj, Miami, Marrakesz, Estoril, s-Hertogenbosch
2018: Barcelona,Winston-Salem,Sztokholm, Paryż-Bercy,
2019: Dubaj, Miami, Monachium, Kitzbühel, St. Petersburg, WTF
2020: Adelaide, Rzym
2022: Adelaide 1, Australian Open, Rzym, Halle
2023: Indian Wells, Miami, Barcelona, US Open, WTF
2015: Kuala Lumpur
2016: Queens, Sankt Petersburg
2017: Waszyngton, Winston-Salem, US Open, Sankt Petersburg, WTF
2018: Doha, Miami, Hamburg,
2019: Eastbourne, US Open,
2020: RG, Sofia
2021: ATP Cup
2022: Stuttgart, Eastbourne, Winston-Salem, Florencja
2023: Montpellier
MTT (DEBEL) - Tytuły (7) / Finały (7)
Spoiler:
2019: RG, Cincinnati, Paryż-Bercy, WTF
2020: RG, US Open
2021: Rzym
2018: WTF
2019: Indian Wells, Madryt
2020: Australian Open
2021: Australian Open, RG, Paryż-Bercy
The longer his service games are extended on hard courts, the more Grigor Dimitrov digs in and finds a way to hold.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of players holding serve when their service games are extended to two or more deuces on hard court over the past five seasons identifies Dimitrov as the leader of the pack with 199 service games held from this precarious scenario.
This metric is somewhat of a double-edged sword as Dimitrov, like all players on Tour, would naturally prefer to hold his service games with greater ease.
But theory and reality don’t always mix, and Dimitrov has shown great resolve to hold serve when opponents are pushing their way deeper and deeper into his service games.
The leading 10 players from 2015-2019 that held the most service games from two or more deuces:
1. Grigor Dimitrov = 199
2. Stan Wawrinka = 192
3. Dominic Thiem = 164
4. David Goffin = 159
T5. Alexander Zverev = 153
T5. Adrian Mannarino = 153
7. Novak Djokovic = 149
T8. Benoit Paire = 145
T8. Kei Nishikori = 145
10. Fernando Verdasco = 145
Dimitrov is currently No. 22 in the FedEx ATP Rankings. He held his career-high of No. 3 in November 2017 after winning the Nitto ATP Finals in London.
In the past five seasons, Dimitrov’s single season effort in 2016 of holding 58 times from two or more deuces is the best.
2015-2019 Season Leader: Holding Two Or More Deuces
2019: Stefanos Tsitsipas = 53
2018: Grigor Dimitrov = 50
2017: Alexander Zverev = 51
2016: Grigor Dimitrov = 58
2015: Stan Wawrinka = 56
Overall, Dimitrov has held an impressive 76.8 per cent (199/259) of the time when his service games have been extended to two or more deuces, which is ahead of the Tour average of 73.4 per cent (9270/12636).
The player with the highest win percentage from 2015-2019, with a minimum of 50 attempts, is Ivo Karlovic, who won 85.6 per cent (83/97). The five best win percentages:
1: Ivo Karlovic = 85.6% (83/97)
2: Milos Raonic = 84.7% (100/118)
3: Nick Kyrgios = 84.4% (119/141)
4: Juan Martin del Potro = 84.3% (75/89)
5: Reilly Opelka = 83.6% (46/55)
Having your service games extended to two or more deuces is going to happen no matter if you like it or not. Dimitrov’s resilience in this specific situation helps keep him at the top tier of our sport.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
Here's Why Rafa Breaking You On A Second Serve Is Bad News..
Spoiler:
It’s break time for The Big Three.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic converting break points against first and second serves when winning and losing matches uncovers some revealing statistics into their stranglehold at the top of the tennis tree. The data set covers five seasons from 2015-2019.
Break Points Won vs. 1st Serves
The interesting first take here is how close the three players are for all the matches they played. Rafael Nadal slightly edged the other two, winning 38.02 per cent (576/1515) of break points against first serves, with both Djokovic and Federer close behind within one percentage point.
Surprisingly, it was Federer who led the trio with the highest percentage of break points won against first serves with all matches that he won, at 39.27 per cent (377/960). The commonly held view point is that both Nadal and Djokovic should eclipse the Swiss in all return categories, but it’s simply not so.
Nadal was the best performing player winning break points against first serves in the matches he lost, at 29.44 per cent (53/180). Overall, Nadal also had the least drop off between matches he won and matches he lost, at 9.74 percentage points (39.18% to 29.44%).
Break Points Won vs. 1st Serve (bold = leader)
Player
All Matches
Matches Won
Matches Lost
Won v Lost Gap (Percentage Points)
Rafael Nadal
38.02%
39.18%
29.44%
9.74%
Novak Djokovic
37.73%
39.11%
25.93%
13.18%
Roger Federer
37.08%
39.27%
22.38%
16.89%
Break Points Won vs. 2nd Serves
Nadal was also the best performer of the Big Three winning break points against second serves, at 58.35 per cent (573/982). Nadal also collected the honours with Matches Won, at 60.55 per cent (528/972), while Djokovic had the highest metrics when losing the match, at 47.37 per cent (36/76).
Djokovic also had the least drop off between the win percentages against first and second serves at break point, falling just 11.42 percentage points (58.79% to 47.37%).
Break Points Won vs. 2nd Serve (bold = leader)
Player
All Matches
Matches Won
Lost Match
Gap
Rafael Nadal
58.35%
60.55%
40.91%
19.64%
Novak Djokovic
57.93%
58.79%
47.37%
11.42%
Roger Federer
51.72%
53.86%
36.89%
16.97%
There are many ways to compare the performance of the Big Three to find out where they craft their small advantages as they constantly chase the biggest prizes in our sport. Performance around break points is as important as any stat they produce to determine if they are continuing to hold the silverware on any given Sunday.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
The longer it goes, the more Rafael Nadal thrives.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of players who break serve the most after extending service games to Deuce identifies that Nadal has no peer. The data set includes players who have had a minimum of 100 attempts to break from Deuce in the past five seasons from 2015-2019.
Nadal is the only player to break through the 40 percentile barrier with this specific metric, breaking serve 41.39 per cent (382/923) of the time when pushing the game to Deuce. And once you isolate the Spaniard just on clay, that percentage fast approaches a dead-even contest.
2015 - 2019: Nadal Breaking Serve From Deuce
Clay = 48.72% (190/390)
Hard = 35.12% (164/467)
Grass = 42.42% (28/66)
Combined = 41.39% (382/923)
Nadal has actually been above 50 per cent breaking from Deuce on clay in four of the past five seasons (2019, 2018, 2017, 2015), with the highest being 52.56 per cent (41/78) in 2018.
Andy Murray is ranked second overall in the past five seasons on all surfaces, breaking serve 38.10 per cent (253/664) of the time from Deuce. Murray is the hard-court leader in this category, breaking serve 37.56 per cent (157/418) on this surface from 2015-2019. The Brit was also the single-season leader in 2016, when he broke serve almost 44 per cent of the time from Deuce. The leaders over the past five seasons are.
2015-2019: Single Season Leader
2015: Rafael Nadal = 44.93% (93/207)
2016: Andy Murray = 43.86% (100/228)
2017: Yoshihito Nishioka = 48.84% (21/43)
2018: Rafael Nadal = 46.54% (74/159)
2019: Rafael Nadal = 41.12% (81/197)
Novak Djokovic sits in third place overall, breaking serve 36.62 per cent (377/1038) of the time from Deuce on all surfaces. 23-year-old Chilean Cristian Garin impressively sits in fourth position, breaking 36.25 per cent (58/160) of the time. Garin currently boasts a career-best FedEx ATP Ranking of No. 18 after winning the Cordoba Open and Rio Open.
The leading 10 players breaking from Deuce over the past five seasons are:
2015-2019: Breaking Serve From Deuce
#
Player
Break % From Deuce
Breaks Total
1
Rafael Nadal
41.39%
382/923
2
Andy Murray
40.38%
253/664
3
Novak Djokovic
36.62%
377/1038
4
Cristian Garin
36.25%
58/160
5
Damir Dzumhur
35.82%
197/550
6
Yoshihito Nishioka
35.14%
104/296
7
Richard Gasquet
35.07%
229/653
8
Fabio Fognini
34.14%
267/782
9
David Goffin
34.10%
313/918
10
Diego Schwartzman
34.06%
264/775
Pushing the server to Deuce is not an easy task in itself. These players are the best of the best at going the extra step and securing the break after an extended arm wrestle to Deuce and beyond.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
Tsitsipas Completes First Full Year In Top 10 Of FedEx ATP Rankings
Spoiler:
Greek reaches 52 weeks among the elite at a younger age than Murray, Federer
Stefanos Tsitsipas has completed 52 consecutive weeks in the Top 10 of the FedEx ATP Rankings, having first risen into the elite on 4 March 2019 (at No. 10). The Greek, who is currently No. 6, attained a career-high No. 5 on 5 August last year.
Aged 21 years and six months, Tsitsipas has spent a first full year in the Top 10 at a younger age than two former World No. 1s Andy Murray (22 years, 52 days) and Roger Federer (22 years, 66 days). Rafael Nadal, who won 15 of his 85 tour-level titles as a teenager, completed 52 weeks in the Top 10 at 19 years and 325 days, while current World No. 1 Novak Djokovic, who beat Tsitsipas in last week’s Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships final, was 20 years and 307 days. Alexander Zverev was just 102 days younger than Tsitsipas - at 21 years and 101 days - when he finished 52 weeks in the Top 10.
As Tsitsipas looks to further extend his time in the Top 10, he's is not looking to burden himself about what's he's achieved in the past. “I'm sort of in a mindset where I don't really think of defending [points]," he said. "I'm thinking more of the [FedEx] ATP Race [To London, the year-to-date standings] and making it to the Nitto ATP Finals at the end of the year.
"Scheduling is very important when you have your time off, when you practise. My schedule this year is quite different from last year's. I'm going to try to focus more on 500 events, Masters 1000s, Grand Slams.”
Watch Live
Over the past 52 weeks, Tsitsipas has compiled a 49-25 match record, including three titles at the Nitto ATP Finals (d. Thiem) in November 2019 and two ATP 250-level events: the 2019 Millennium Estoril Open (d. Cuevas) and Open 13 Provence in Marseille (d. Auger-Aliassime) last month. Additionally, he was runner-up at the Mutua Madrid Open (l. to Djokovic), an ATP Masters 1000 tournament, and two ATP 500-level events: the 2019 China Open in Beijing (l. to Thiem) and Dubai.
Djokovic was full of praise for Tsitsipas after beating him in the Dubai final, saying, “I love the fact that he is more than just tennis player and he's always looking to learn from the experience and to understand something new about himself so he can improve, get better. That for me is a trait of a champion, of someone that for sure has a great potential to be No. 1 of the world and win Grand Slams and be a great ambassador of our sport. He already is, but he has a great future ahead of him, I'm sure.”
View Latest FedEx ATP Rankings
2015: Tokio
2016: Rio de Janeiro, Indian Wells, Waszyngton, Chengdu, WTF
2017: Doha, Sydney, Dubaj, Miami, Marrakesz, Estoril, s-Hertogenbosch
2018: Barcelona,Winston-Salem,Sztokholm, Paryż-Bercy,
2019: Dubaj, Miami, Monachium, Kitzbühel, St. Petersburg, WTF
2020: Adelaide, Rzym
2022: Adelaide 1, Australian Open, Rzym, Halle
2023: Indian Wells, Miami, Barcelona, US Open, WTF
2015: Kuala Lumpur
2016: Queens, Sankt Petersburg
2017: Waszyngton, Winston-Salem, US Open, Sankt Petersburg, WTF
2018: Doha, Miami, Hamburg,
2019: Eastbourne, US Open,
2020: RG, Sofia
2021: ATP Cup
2022: Stuttgart, Eastbourne, Winston-Salem, Florencja
2023: Montpellier
MTT (DEBEL) - Tytuły (7) / Finały (7)
Spoiler:
2019: RG, Cincinnati, Paryż-Bercy, WTF
2020: RG, US Open
2021: Rzym
2018: WTF
2019: Indian Wells, Madryt
2020: Australian Open
2021: Australian Open, RG, Paryż-Bercy
Novak Djokovic is 18-0 to start the 2020 season. Impressive. He has also won 17 of the past 18 tie-breaks he has played dating back to the 2019 Wimbledon final. Possibly even more impressive.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Djokovic’s dominance as the No. 1 player in the world reveals that his recent body of work has been rock solid, but his unwavering ability to finish what he started at the end of sets is from another world.
Djokovic sits atop the career Infosys ATP Stats Under Pressure Leaderboard. Tie-break performance is part of the overall metric, and Djokovic sits in 13th place with career tie-breaks won at 64.5 per cent. He has ratcheted that up to perfection mode in the first two months of this season.
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The World No. 1 has played eight tie-breaks in 2020 and has won them all. His first match of the season at the ATP Cup was a 7-6(5), 7-6(6) victory over South Africa’s Kevin Anderson. The Serb saved a set point at 5/6 in the second-set tie-break and rolled from there. Djokovic then defeated Denis Shapovalov 4-6, 6-1, 7-6(4) in the quarter-finals and Rafael Nadal 6-2, 7-6(4) in the final to set the tie-break tone for January and February.
In the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships semi-final last week, Djokovic defeated Gael Monfils 2-6, 7-6(8), 6-1, coming back from 3/6 in the tie-break to save three consecutive match points and run away with the match in the third set.
So just how does Djokovic do it? How does the Super Serb play so even in a set with an opponent to get to a tie-break, then win 17 of 18 on the trot?
This jaw-dropping run started at the 2019 Wimbledon final, where Djokovic defeated Federer 7-6(5), 1-6, 7-6(4), 4-6, 13-12(3), with a 12-point tie-break played at 12-12 in the fifth set.
How Djokovic crafted his winning strategy in those three tie-breaks is the blueprint he employs for all of them. It’s about staying the course, playing the big points on his terms, trading baseline blows and not trying to pull a rabbit out of a hat or relying on spectacular shotmaking to cross the finish line.
Tie-breaks are about not missing, and making the opponent uncomfortable having to hit one more shot in a pattern of play that they don’t really want to be in. Turning the screws is what the five-time Indian Wells champion relies on the most in the big moments.
For example, the three tie-breaks in the Wimbledon final against Federer contained 33 points. The following breakdown should stop you in your tracks.
Djokovic committed just one solitary forehand groundstroke error leading 5-1 in the second set tie-break. As a stark comparison, Federer led 5-3 in the first set tie-break and committed four straight groundstroke errors. Overall Federer hit seven winners and committed 20 total errors in the three tie-breaks while Djokovic committed just five errors (four return) and collected just two winners.
That’s what lockdown looks like on a tennis court.
Outside of the tie-breaks, Federer won 13/15 points serving and volleying and 51/65 points approaching the net from a baseline position. The net was Federer’s wheelhouse. But in the 33 total points in all three tie-breaks, Federer won just one point at the net from two trips forward.
Twenty of the 33 points (61%) were contested with both Djokovic and Federer standing at the baseline. Djokovic won 16 of them. Eight rallies reached double digits and Djokovic won six.
Tie-breaks are all about fastening the hatches and putting the ball in play. Don’t beat yourself. Make the opponent tap out chasing shots at the extremities of their competence. Djokovic is in a class of his own right now and his perfect start to the season is a reflection of his perfect record in tie-breaks.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of players breaking serve over the past 29 years identifies that the most recent season (2019) and the most distant (1991) in the data set sit at polar opposites in overall performance on a statistics table - and not where you would expect.
The data set includes the average of the 20 best performers each season in breaking serve from when statistics were first kept in 1991 to last season. The leading 20 players in 1991 outperformed the season leaders in each of the 28 seasons that followed, breaking serve 32.18 per cent (4,309/13,392) of the time on average.
What was the worst performing season? None other than last year, when the leading 20 players broke serve just 26.19 per cent (3,769/14,315) of the time. We have a preconceived notion that our sport is always improving, always putting up superior numbers than yesteryear, but that’s not always the case. In fact, the leading six seasons are all in the 1990s and the seven worst performing years are all from 2010 onwards.
There has only been one instance where a player has broken the 40 per cent threshold for return games won in a season. That was Rafael Nadal in 2016, where he won a staggering 40.75 per cent (216/530) of his return games. Nadal has been the season leader in return games won a record nine times, with the first coming in 2005. Nadal has been the return games won leader in the past two seasons and five of the past seven seasons.
In 2016, Nadal led the tour in breaking serve from 15/0. He won 27.13 per cent (70/258) of the games where this occurred, which was more than double the tour average of 13.49 per cent (2,891/21,435). It’s just another return metric where he understandably sits at the top of the mountain. The Spaniard has been the ultimate nemesis for the server for well over a decade.
While the leading 20 players performed better breaking serve in the 1990s than in the past decade, Nadal transcends all years and generations with his ability to consistently lead the tour in breaking serve at a rate other players simply can’t compete with.
1991-2019: Average Of The Best 20 Performers Breaking Serve
Year
Leading Players Break %
Season Leader
Season Leader Break %
1991
32.18%
M. Gustaffson
36.48%
1994
31.79%
A. Berasategui
36.83%
1995
31.68%
T. Muster
35,92%
1992
31.28%
M. Chang
36.70%
1993
31.27%
A. Agassi
37.34%
1996
30.85%
M. Chang
35.28%
2003
30.44%
G. Coria
38.83%
2005
30.33%
R. Nadal
37.54%
1998
29.89%
K. Kucera
33.51%
2006
29.67%
N. Davydenko
35.41%
1997
29.48%
A. Corretja
33.42%
2011
29.36%
N. Djokovic
38.84%
1999
29.27%
A. Agassi
33.83%
2004
29.26%
F. Volandri
37.46%
2001
28.98%
L. Hewitt
33.48%
2006
29.67%
N. Davydenko
35.41%
2002
28.94%
L. Hewitt
33.06%
2007
28.92%
D. Ferrer
36.09%
2016
28.57%
R. Nadal
40.75%
2012
28.26%
R. Nadal
37.70%
2000
28.15%
K. Kucera
31.55%
2009
27.80%
R. Nadal
33.56%
2008
27.80%
R. Nadal
33.56%
2008
27.80%
R. Nadal
33.49%
2013
27.45%
R. Nadal
33.84%
2010
27.35%
J.I. Chela
32.22%
2018
27.01%
R. Nadal
36.55%
2014
26.57%
R. Nadal
34.97%
2017
26.57%
D. Schwartzman
34.76%
2015
26.46%
N. Djokovic
34.44%
2019
26.19%
R. Nadal
34.97%
Pushing the server to Deuce is not an easy task in itself. These players are the best of the best at going the extra step and securing the break after an extended arm wrestle to Deuce and beyond.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
Why You Should Pay More Attention To Djokovic's Serve
Spoiler:
Isner and Opelka provide insight into the Serbian's underappreciated weapon
In the past, people didn't often discuss World No. 1 Novak Djokovic’s serve. But the statistics show that it has long been among tennis’ best.
“You actually don’t think about his serve, which is kind of disrespectful to him in a sense, just because he does everything so well,” said John Isner, who ranks second all-time in service games won at 92 per cent. “You immediately talk about his return and of course his movement around the court, and his groundstrokes are the best in the world.”
Starting in 2011, Djokovic finished among the ATP Tour’s 10 best in service games won every season except for 2017, when he underwent right elbow surgery. The Serbian has averaged just more than five aces per match in his career according to Infosys ATP Scores & Stats, but he has still been effective.
“He spot serves it very well. He won’t necessarily hit it 130 miles per hour, but he’s definitely improved that part of his game,” Isner said. “He would even say probably six or seven years ago that his serve was a bit of a liability. But now it’s not at all, and that’s why he’s the most dominant player in the game.”
2019 Service Games Won Leaderboard
Player Service Games Won (%)
1. John Isner 94%
2. Roger Federer 91%
3. Reilly Opelka 91%
4. Rafael Nadal 90%
5. Novak Djokovic 88%
Djokovic ranks fifth in career second-serve points won (56%) and 14th in career service games won (86%). The 32-year-old has won a higher rate of service games than players known for their big serves — Goran Ivanisevic and Mark Philippoussis — as well as former World No. 1s Rafael Nadal, Jim Courier, Andre Agassi, Stefan Edberg, Ivan Lendl and more.
Djokovic's Average Aces Per Match — Past Five Years
2020 7.2
2019 5.7
2018 5.3
2017 4.1
2016 3.8Editor's Note: Aces from Davis Cup are not recorded in Infosys ATP Scores & Stats.
Reilly Opelka, who was second on the ATP Tour in aces last season, believes that Djokovic has a strong serve, and knowing that his stunning baseline game is there to back it up makes breaking the Serbian a daunting task for returners.
“I think it’s moreso because of everything else in his game. He does serve very well. But he’s breaking serve [more than 30 per cent] of the time, which is ridiculous,” Opelka said. “Obviously when you give him the first strike of the ball, it’s going to be even higher. He does serve well and it’s not talked about. But it’s really the rest of his game that makes him impossible to break.”
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Djokovic has outpaced his average rate of service games won (86%) this season. He has won nearly 90 per cent of his service games in 2020, up from 87 per cent in 2018 and 88 per cent in 2019. That has helped Djokovic to an 18-0 start, leading Team Serbia to ATP Cup glory, triumphing at the Australian Open and lifting the trophy in Dubai.
“I'm hitting everything I can in terms of the variety of spin, slice, flat, hitting the spots, body, wide, T. I'm trying to mix it up all the time. Obviously depends who I play against. Obviously I have different tactics depending on the opponent,” Djokovic said after defeating big-serving Milos Raonic in the Australian Open quarter-finals. “I feel that my serve this year so far in the ATP Cup and also the Australian Open has been terrific. It's allowed me to win a lot of free points.
“When I'm serving well and getting a high percentage of first serves in, it allows me to feel more comfortable, more confident, step in and play at the higher level of tennis.”
In 2017 and 2018, when Djokovic dealt with right elbow issues, he abbreviated his service motion before abandoning that adjustment. Ever since, the Serbian has been devastatingly good on serve. What’s scary for his opponents is that he’s working hard to make the stroke even better.
“We worked a lot in the off-season on my serve. I'm feeling great. I have a great rhythm. Obviously I know that different surfaces, different times, require different adjustments,” Djokovic said. “But in terms of the way I've been serving now, it has been some of the best serving I've had in my career.”
Other players have taken notice. Djokovic’s serve isn’t often praised as much as the rest of the game. But when you realise how effective it is, the idea of facing him becomes more intimidating.
“He doesn’t have a weakness. He just doesn’t. That’s why he’s No. 1 in the world, he’s one of the greatest players of all-time. He’s only a few Grand Slams now behind the all-time record,” Isner said. “It’s pretty incredible what he’s doing.”
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
Why Nadal Is Even Better On Hard Courts Than You Think
Spoiler:
World No. 2 Rafael Nadal has long been lauded for his clay success. But not only has the Spaniard compiled one of the best hard-court records in history; the lefty is performing significantly better than his career average.
According to the ATP Performance Zone, Nadal leads the ATP Tour over the past 52 weeks with a 90.5 winning percentage on hard courts. That puts him well ahead of World No. 1 Novak Djokovic (86%), Roger Federer (81.1%), Daniil Medvedev (75.5%) and Andrey Rublev (75.4%).
View ATP Performance Zone
Hard-Court Winning Percentage — Past 52 Weeks
Player Winning Percentage
1. Rafael Nadal 90.5%
2. Novak Djokovic 86%
3. Roger Federer 81.1%
4. Daniil Medvedev 75.5%
5. Andrey Rublev 75.4%
Nadal has won 38 of his 42 hard-court matches over the past year. Not only is he winning at a high rate, but he's doing so against highly-ranked players. The 33-year-old has earned 11 of those 38 victories against Top 20 opponents, with seven of those triumphs coming in straight sets. The lowest-ranked opponent Nadal has lost to on hard courts since the start of the 2019 BNP Paribas Open was then-World No. 11 David Goffin at this year’s ATP Cup.
The Mallorcan’s efforts on the surface might always be compared to his spectacular efforts on clay, on which he has a career winning percentage of 91.8 per cent, but his career numbers stack up well in the history books. Nadal currently ranks 11th in career winning percentage on hard courts at 78.1 per cent, ahead of former World No. 1s Boris Becker, Bjorn Borg, Jim Courier, Mats Wilander and more.
Career Winning Percentage On Hard Courts (Active Players)
Player (all-time rank) Winning Percentage
1. Novak Djokovic (1st) 84.3%
2. Roger Federer (3rd) 83.5%
3. Andy Murray (10th) 78.2%
4. Rafael Nadal (11th) 78.1%
5. Juan Martin del Potro (21st) 72.3%
The only active players whom Nadal trails in the category are the other members of the Big Four: Djokovic, Federer and Andy Murray. The Spaniard is also eight-hundredths of a percentage point away from passing Murray and cracking the Top 10.
Perhaps what is most impressive is how much Nadal has improved on hard courts. His performance over the past 52 weeks is more than 12 percentage points better than his career average. Last year he triumphed at the Coupe Rogers, an ATP Masters 1000 event held in Montreal, and the US Open. Last month, he was victorious at the Abierto Mexicano Telcel presentado por HSBC, an ATP 500 in Acapulco.
In every season starting in 2017, Nadal has won more than 80 per cent of his hard-court matches per year. He had not eclipsed that mark in the three seasons before that. From 2017 until today, Nadal's hard-court winning percentage is 84.8 per cent.
Did You Know?
According to the ATP Performance Zone, Nadal owns the highest career winning percentage on record at 83.2 per cent. He is followed by Djokovic at 83 per cent.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
How Zverev's First Serve Fixed His Second-Serve Woes
Spoiler:
Alexander Zverev averaged hitting almost three second serves a game at the 2020 ATP Cup and lost all three matches he played. Too much exposure to second serves led to too many double faults.
Fast forward to his next tournament, the 2020 Australian Open. He averaged hitting just one second serve per game, which was the tournament leader, and produced a career-best Grand Slam result in reaching the semi-finals. The moral of the story is simple: Too much exposure to second serves is lethal to your winning aspirations.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the average number of second serves hit per game by the current Top 10 through the Australian Open revealed that Zverev and Gael Monfils were the only two players who averaged less than two second serves per game. Zverev was at 1.61, while Monfils was at 1.91.
The Top 10 average was 2.18 second serves per game. The other four players that all sat below that average were Novak Djokovic (2.02), Rafael Nadal (2.03), Stefanos Tsitsipas (2.10), and Roger Federer (2.15). The four players above the Top 10 average of 2.18 were Dominic Thiem (2.34), Matteo Berrettini (2.38), Daniil Medvedev (2.52) and David Goffin (2.77).
Zverev’s two tournaments to start 2020 were polar opposites in this specific metric.
Zverev at 2020 ATP Cup
•Win/Loss = 0/3
•Service Games / 2nd Serves = 31 / 91
•Double Faults = 31 in 9 sets
•Average 2nd Serves Per Game = 2.94
Zverev at 2020 Australian Open
•Win/Loss = 5/1 (semi-finals)
•Service Games / 2nd Serves = 99 / 118
•Double Faults = 14 in 20 sets
•Average 2nd Serves Per Game = 1.19 (tournament leader)
John Isner has been the single-season leader since 2015 in hitting the fewest second serves per game, and currently sits in fourth place in 2020.
•2020 = Tie C. Moutet/C. Ruud 1.55
•2019 = J. Isner 1.71
•2018 = J. Isner 1.96
•2017 = J. Isner 1.78
•2016 = J. Isner 1.82
•2015 = J. Isner 1.82
Hitting second serves in a match is inevitable. Averaging only one per game is other-worldly. Averaging three per game can prove fatal. The sweet spot seems to be slightly over two.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
Would you rather be serving at Deuce or 0/15 against Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer or any other player in the Top 10 of the FedEx ATP Rankings?
When you’re serving at Deuce, members of the Top 10 like Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev are definitely a threat to break you. After all, they just need to win two points. From 0/15, their chances, at least at first glance, seem lower because they need to win an additional three points to break.
On the other side of the coin, as the server, you only need two points to hold at Deuce, but you need to win four points from 0/15.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the year-end Top 10 from the 2019 season reveals that the world's Top 10 were considerably more likely to break serve when returning from 0/15 than from Deuce.
Year-End Top 10: Percentage Breaking Serve
• From 0/15=42% (1330/3168)
• From Deuce=33% (674/2051)
From 0/15, the Top 10 broke serve 42 per cent of the time. From Deuce, the rate dropped to 33 per cent.
Of the 16 possible point scores, Nadal was the Top 10 leader in breaking serve from 13 of them. Djokovic took the honors in the other three: 0/40, 15/40 and 30/40.
Incredibly, Nadal was favoured to break serve last season when he won the first point of the game to move the score to 0/15, winning 50.7 per cent of return games from that position. The other nine members of the Top 10 averaged breaking serve 41.1 per cent (1177/2866) of the time from 0/15.
But when the server fell behind 0/40, Nadal was only sixth-best among his peers. He broke serve 84 per cent of the time, behind Djokovic (91%), Thiem (91%), Federer (90%), Monfils (89%) and Medvedev (85%).
From 15/40, Nadal broke serve 79 per cent of the time, the fifth-best percentage behind Djokovic (83%), Monfils (81%), Federer (81%) and Thiem (80%).
But the biggest lesson to be learned is that when playing a member of the Top 10, do everything you can to win the first point of your service game. You fall behind at your peril.
2019 Season-End Top 10: Percentage Breaking Serve From Points Score & Leader
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
What have you got to do to win 52 per cent or more of your points over an extended period? Basically, be Superman.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of points won over a five-year span from 2015-2019 identifies that only six active players won more than 52 per cent of their points. They were Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Milos Raonic and Juan Martin del Potro.
Only Djokovic, Nadal and Federer were able to climb above the 54 per cent threshold, which is just another indicator of how the Big Three separate themselves from the pack. The win percentages for the six players are:
2015-2019: Total Points Won > 52 percent
Player
Total Points Won/Points Played
Win Percentage
N. Djokovic
25,921/47,169
54.95%
R. Nadal
23,753/43,403
54.73%
R. Federer
22,516/41,281
54.54%
A. Murray
17,263/32,520
53.08%
M. Raonic
18,425/35,140
52.43%
J.M. del Potro
12,822/24,458
52.42%
Nadal led the Tour from 2017 to 2019 with points won in a single season, including the highest single-season percentage of 55.77 per cent (4,891/8,770), which he posted last year. The season leaders from 2015-2019 are:
Season Leader - Total Points Won
•2015: N. Djokovic = 55.53% (6054/10902)
•2016: N. Djokovic = 55.27% (5469/9895)
•2017: R. Nadal = 55.53% (5966/10744)
•2018: R. Nadal = 55.42% (4226/7626)
•2019: R. Nadal = 55.77% (4891/8770)
There are 16 more players who won between 51 per cent and 52 per cent of total points from 2015 to 2019, with the five highest being Marin Cilic (51.91%), Kei Nishikori (51.88%), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (51.81%), Dominic Thiem (51.74%) and Gael Monfils (51.72%).
You would think that posting a FedEx ATP Ranking around the Top 50 would also match with winning many more points than those lost, but only 53 players barely won more than 50 per cent of their points over the five-year period, with 47 of them living in the 50-52 per cent range.
Djokovic went on a tear to start 2020, going 18-0 in his first three events of the season. During the undefeated run, he only needed to notch up his percentage of total points won, which is typically right around 55 per cent, by one percentage point - to 56.03 per cent. The leading five players through the first two months of 2020 are:
2020 Leaders (Jan/Feb)
N. Djokovic = 56.03% (1635/2918)
R. Nadal = 55.46% (1330/2398)
R. Bautista Agut = 54.63% (1032/1889)
S. Tsitsipas = 54.07% (1241/2295)
A. Rublev = 53.71% (1464/2726)
Sixty-seven players won more points than they lost to start the 2020 season. When the Tour resumes, finding one or two more points out of every hundred will have real purpose now that we better understand the razor-thin margins that success in our sport are built upon.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
The Four Keys To Rios' Miami Masterpiece Against Agassi
Spoiler:
Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers takes a closer look at their 1998 Miami final
Andre Agassi didn’t know what hit him.
In their first ever meeting, Marcelo Rios blasted Agassi off the court in the 1998 Miami Masters 1000 final, winning 7-5, 6-3, 6-4. It wasn’t that close. Rios hit more than double the winners (46 to 22), and only faced one break point in the first set, while Agassi totaled 12 for the match.
Agassi must have felt like he was playing a left-handed version of himself, as Rios parked himself on the baseline for the afternoon and clubbed groundstroke winners at will from start to finish. Rios ascended to No. 1 in the FedEx ATP Rankings with the stunning victory.
1. Rios’ Forehand
The Chilean possesses such fluid, languid technique on his forehand with sublime balance that at first glance it appears he is putting very little effort into the stroke. And then the ball explodes off the strings and you just stand there and watch it go right by you.
Rios’ forehand was the star of the show as he crushed 19 forehand groundstroke winners and one forehand return winner. Agassi, by comparison, only managed five forehand groundstroke winners and two forehand return winners. This 20-7 mismatch set the tone for the battle more than any other dynamic.
Rios’ primary baseline strategy was to initially construct baseline exchanges through the Ad court, pitting his lethal, lefty forehand against Agassi’s backhand. At the first sign of a short ball, Rios stepped inside the baseline and ripped the forehand winner the other way, out wide through the Deuce court.
Overall, Rios hit 13 forehand winners wide through the Deuce court and seven through the Ad court. Rios used the Ad court as the “assist”, and then switched to the Deuce court as the knock-out punch. Rios put on a masterclass of “freezing” Agassi with his forehand because Agassi had no idea which direction the next laser beam was going.
1. Rios’ Serve
This was one of the best serving days Rios could hope for. Consider the following numbers for both players.
Serve Metrics
Marcelo Rios
Andre Agassi
1st Serves In
66%
55%
1st Serves Won
75%
82%
Aces
13
6
2nd Serves Won
63%
38%
Double Faults
2
4
Break Points Saved
0/1
8/12
Rios was always a step ahead with first serve location, especially going against the lefty grain in the Deuce court by serving a lot out wide. He won a staggering 13/14 first serve points going wide in the Deuce court to Agassi’s forehand return, including five aces, catching Agassi sitting on the typical lefty location of slice serves down the T.
In the Ad court, Rios won 65 per cent (11/17) with the wide slider and 70 per cent (7/10) mixing down the T. The blend was everything against one of the best returners our game has ever seen.
3. Serve +1 Performance
A primary reason Rios only faced one break point for the match was that he immediately followed up his serve with a Serve +1 forehand much more than Agassi did.
A specific derivative of the match Rios targeted was returning to Agassi’s backhand, which would then typically come back cross court to Rios’ forehand, where he could establish early control of the point. This strategy was especially potent against Agassi’s second serve.
Rios directed 72 per cent (23/32) of second-serve returns at Agassi’s backhand, and won 83 per cent (19/23) of those points.
Baseline Performance
Very rarely has Agassi been outgunned in a baseline-to-baseline exchange, but Rios got the better of him on this hot Sunday afternoon in Miami.
Baseline Points Won (Both players at baseline when point ends)
•Rios Baseline Points Won = 54% (87)
•Agassi Baseline Points Won = 46% (75)
It was a masterful display from Rios from start to finish. It was as though he stole Agassi’s playbook and delivered it back to him with interest in a left-handed version.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
Why Federer & Djokovic Are Different, But Still The Same In Rally Success
Spoiler:
Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers takes a closer look at the rally lengths where Federer and Djokovic shine
Roger Federer is a first-strike player who prefers to attack first and ask questions later. Novak Djokovic is a precision baseliner who patiently picks his opponents apart from the back of the court with depth, direction and consistency.
Two different styles - but with almost identical metrics in rallies short and long.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic from 2018-2020 at ATP Tour events on Hawk-Eye courts identifies how incredibly similar their percentages are, even though the way they go about collecting their points is strategically different.
The data set comes from 2,854 ATP matches from 2018-2020 and includes players that have played a minimum of 2,000 points combined in the following three rally lengths.
Rally Lengths
•0-4 shots
•5-8 shots
•9+ shots
0-4 Shot Rallies
This is where you would expect Federer to have a clear edge over Djokovic in winning rallies with a maximum of just four shots - which means each player gets to touch the ball a maximum of just two times. The analysis uncovers that the pair are almost identical with their performance in this key battleground.
Points Won 0-4 Shots
•R. Federer = 53.75% (4,816/8,960)
•N. Djokovic = 53.54% (4,382/8,184)
•Gap = 0.21 percentage points
Federer’s lead over Djokovic was right around two tenths of a percentage point, which is infinitesimally small. The leader in this category was Daniil Medvedev, who won 54.98 per cent (5248/9546) of first-strike points.
9+ Shot Rallies
This is where you would expect Djokovic to widen the gap over Federer in their head-to-head win percentages. We all perceive longer rallies to be much more in Djokovic’s wheelhouse than Federer’s. Once again, the numbers show us how our perception does not align with the statistical reality.
Points Won 9+ Shots
•N. Djokovic = 54.63% (1,404/2,570)
•R. Federer = 54.53% (806/1,478)
•Gap = 0.10 percentage points
Amazingly, only a tenth of a percentage point separated the two players. Japanese Yoshihito Nishioka led this category by winning winning 56.57 per cent (784/1386) of these rallies.
5-8 Shot Rallies
Points Won 5-8 Shots
•N. Djokovic = 55.51% (2,086/3,758)
•R. Federer = 53.27% (1,840/3,454)
•Gap = 2.24 percentage points
The most separation between the two players was in this medium rally length, with Djokovic edging a couple of percentage points higher than Federer. Rafael Nadal, No. 2 in the FedEx ATP Rankings, led the Tour in this category by winning a dominant 59.71 per cent (1304/2184) of the points.
The data clearly shows that Djokovic is just as accomplished in shorter rallies as Federer is, while Federer has been posting almost identical numbers as Djokovic in rallies that get extended to nine shots or more.
Sometimes you need to go to a stats sheet to really understand the greatness of these two players.
2015: Tokio
2016: Rio de Janeiro, Indian Wells, Waszyngton, Chengdu, WTF
2017: Doha, Sydney, Dubaj, Miami, Marrakesz, Estoril, s-Hertogenbosch
2018: Barcelona,Winston-Salem,Sztokholm, Paryż-Bercy,
2019: Dubaj, Miami, Monachium, Kitzbühel, St. Petersburg, WTF
2020: Adelaide, Rzym
2022: Adelaide 1, Australian Open, Rzym, Halle
2023: Indian Wells, Miami, Barcelona, US Open, WTF
2015: Kuala Lumpur
2016: Queens, Sankt Petersburg
2017: Waszyngton, Winston-Salem, US Open, Sankt Petersburg, WTF
2018: Doha, Miami, Hamburg,
2019: Eastbourne, US Open,
2020: RG, Sofia
2021: ATP Cup
2022: Stuttgart, Eastbourne, Winston-Salem, Florencja
2023: Montpellier
MTT (DEBEL) - Tytuły (7) / Finały (7)
Spoiler:
2019: RG, Cincinnati, Paryż-Bercy, WTF
2020: RG, US Open
2021: Rzym
2018: WTF
2019: Indian Wells, Madryt
2020: Australian Open
2021: Australian Open, RG, Paryż-Bercy
One And Done: Tsitsipas & Co. Brace For Sudden Impact
Spoiler:
Infosys ATP Insights analyses 10 recent matches from the reigning Nitto ATP Finals champion
What is the most common rally length in tennis?
The statistical term is called the mode, and it’s the least known metric in our sport. It’s been hiding in plain sight since tennis began. An Infosys ATP Insights analysis into 10 recent matches of World No. 6 Stefanos Tsitsipas uncovers that a one-shot rally occurs substantially more than any other rally length in a match.
It’s important to note that rally length in our sport is predicated by the ball landing in the court, not hitting the strings. So a “three-shot” rally is a serve in, a return in, and a winner, while a “two-shot” rally is a serve in, a return in, and an error. That explains a “zero-shot” rally, which is a double fault. The ball simply didn’t land in the court.
The 10 matches in the data set are outlined at the bottom of this report.
Tennis At Home | How ATP Players Make The Most Of Stay At Home
When asked to guess about the most abundant rally length, players at all levels of the game typically gravitate to a four-shot rally as their answer. They are not even close…
Tsitsipas and his opponents played almost 30 per cent of total points as a one-shot rally. The serve went in, and it was sometimes an ace, or more commonly a return error. That was almost double the next highest rally length of three shots, which occurred 15.8 per cent of the time.
You would naturally think that if a one-shot rally is the most abundant, then a two-shot rally would logically be next. It’s not. In fact, both three-shot rallies and five-shot rallies rank above two-shot rallies as the most common.
The reason is the “halo effect” of the serve. The serve is such a powerful force at the start of the rally that the third shot and fifth shot, both won by the server, get to feast on the weaker balls from the returner. It’s also important to note that the server can only win odd-numbered rallies, while the returner can only win even-numbered rallies.
Tsitsipas vs. Opponents: 10 Match Rally Length Analysis
Rating Rally Length Total Percentage
1 1 Shot 458 29.8%
2 3 Shots 243 15.8%
3 5 Shots 153 10.0%
4 2 Shots 151 9.8%
5 4 Shots 123 8.0%
6 7 Shots 88 5.7%
7 6 Shots 65 4.2%
8 8 Shots 48 3.1%
9 0 Shots 40 2.6%
10 11 Shots 40 2.6%
11 9 Shots 36 2.3%
12 10 Shots 32 2.1%
13 15+ Shots 26 1.7%
14 12 Shots 15 1.0%
15 13 Shots 13 0.8%
16 14 Shots 6 0.4%
- Total/Percentage 1,537 100.0%
Overall, Tsitsipas lost slightly more of the 458 points in the dominant one-shot rally length, even though he won 70 per cent (7/10) of the matches.
Tsitsipas vs. Opponents: One-Shot Rallies
Player Rallies Won Percentage
S. Tsitsipas 226 49.3%
Opponents 232 50.7%
It’s interesting to note that only three rally lengths made it to double digits. Those were one shot (29.8%), three shots (15.8%), and five shots (10.0%). They may as well be a roadmap for what players need to focus on most when they step onto the practice court.
2019/2020: 10 Match Snapshot: Stefanos Tsitsipas
Event Win/Loss Score
Dubai 2020 Win d. J. Struff 46 64 64
Marseille 2020 Win d. F. Auger-Aliassime 63 64
Rotterdam 2020 Loss l to. A. Bedene 75 64
Nitto ATP Finals 2019 Win d. D. Thiem 67(6) 62 76
Paris 2019 Loss l to. N. Djokovic 61 62
Paris 2019 Win d. A. de Minaur 63 64
Shanghai 2019 Win d. N. Djokovic 36 75 63
Shanghai 2019 Win d. H. Hurkacz 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(5)
Shanghai 2019 Win d. F. Auger-Aliassime 76(3) 76(3)
Beijing 2019 Loss l to. D. Thiem 36 64 61
2015: Tokio
2016: Rio de Janeiro, Indian Wells, Waszyngton, Chengdu, WTF
2017: Doha, Sydney, Dubaj, Miami, Marrakesz, Estoril, s-Hertogenbosch
2018: Barcelona,Winston-Salem,Sztokholm, Paryż-Bercy,
2019: Dubaj, Miami, Monachium, Kitzbühel, St. Petersburg, WTF
2020: Adelaide, Rzym
2022: Adelaide 1, Australian Open, Rzym, Halle
2023: Indian Wells, Miami, Barcelona, US Open, WTF
2015: Kuala Lumpur
2016: Queens, Sankt Petersburg
2017: Waszyngton, Winston-Salem, US Open, Sankt Petersburg, WTF
2018: Doha, Miami, Hamburg,
2019: Eastbourne, US Open,
2020: RG, Sofia
2021: ATP Cup
2022: Stuttgart, Eastbourne, Winston-Salem, Florencja
2023: Montpellier
MTT (DEBEL) - Tytuły (7) / Finały (7)
Spoiler:
2019: RG, Cincinnati, Paryż-Bercy, WTF
2020: RG, US Open
2021: Rzym
2018: WTF
2019: Indian Wells, Madryt
2020: Australian Open
2021: Australian Open, RG, Paryż-Bercy
Running With The Bull: Curious Nadal, Federer Patterns Revealed
Spoiler:
Spaniard runs 10 per cent less in second set; Federer runs more
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of distance run in the first two sets of matches by the current Top 10 in the FedEx ATP Rankings from 2018-2020 identifies that almost all run less in the second set than the first. Rafael Nadal leads the pack by running 10 per cent less in set two than set one.
And then there is the curious case of Roger Federer, who was the only Top 10 player in the data set to run more in the second set.
The data set is comprised of matches at ATP events on Hawk-Eye courts.
Overall, Nadal ran more in the first set than any other player in the Top 10, at an average of 3512 feet. That is right at 30 per cent more than Matteo Berrettini, who ran the least of the Top 10 in set one at an average of 2478 feet. But once set two began, Nadal was the master at running less compared to his opening set.
The Spaniard averaged running just 89.7 percent of his set one distance in set two, which can be attributed to several factors. Perhaps he wore his opponent out in the first set and they didn’t have the stamina to stay with him in set two. It could also be Nadal cleverly formulated a strategic edge in set one that bore fruit in set two. Another possibility is that he simply loosened up and dictated more in set two after taking the opening set.
You May Also Like: Wrecking Ball: Sinner Has The Heaviest Backhand Of Them All
Daniil Medvedev was second best at reducing his work rate in set two, running 89.8 per cent of the set one distance. The other players who covered significantly less court in set two than set one were Novak Djokovic (91.9%), Dominic Thiem (92.1%), Alexander Zverev (93.0%) and Matteo Berrettini (95.4%). Stefanos Tsitsipas and Gael Monfils were almost identical with distance run between sets, with both being within one percentage point of their set totals.
Federer ran 104.2 per cent more in set two compared to set one. Possibilities why include opponents being able to play more baseline to baseline points in set two compared to the marauding net game Federer typically likes to employ right out of the gate in the first set. It could also have to do with the fact Federer is already on the low end of the spectrum, running just 72 per cent of the distance Nadal did in the first set.
Of all players, Gilles Simon took the honors with the highest average of distance run in set one (4165 feet) and set two (3904 feet), while Nick Kyrgios ran the least in set one (2081 feet) and set two (2024 feet).
Overall, the dynamic of player movement highlights various game styles and the willingness to either try and force errors early in the point or extract them later by wearing down an opponent both physically and mentally.
2018-20: Top 10 Set 1 vs Set 2 Player Movement (in feet)
2015: Tokio
2016: Rio de Janeiro, Indian Wells, Waszyngton, Chengdu, WTF
2017: Doha, Sydney, Dubaj, Miami, Marrakesz, Estoril, s-Hertogenbosch
2018: Barcelona,Winston-Salem,Sztokholm, Paryż-Bercy,
2019: Dubaj, Miami, Monachium, Kitzbühel, St. Petersburg, WTF
2020: Adelaide, Rzym
2022: Adelaide 1, Australian Open, Rzym, Halle
2023: Indian Wells, Miami, Barcelona, US Open, WTF
2015: Kuala Lumpur
2016: Queens, Sankt Petersburg
2017: Waszyngton, Winston-Salem, US Open, Sankt Petersburg, WTF
2018: Doha, Miami, Hamburg,
2019: Eastbourne, US Open,
2020: RG, Sofia
2021: ATP Cup
2022: Stuttgart, Eastbourne, Winston-Salem, Florencja
2023: Montpellier
MTT (DEBEL) - Tytuły (7) / Finały (7)
Spoiler:
2019: RG, Cincinnati, Paryż-Bercy, WTF
2020: RG, US Open
2021: Rzym
2018: WTF
2019: Indian Wells, Madryt
2020: Australian Open
2021: Australian Open, RG, Paryż-Bercy
Wrecking Ball: Sinner Has The Heaviest Backhand Of Them All
Spoiler:
Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers looks at the backhand of the reigning Next Gen ATP Finals champion
The biggest, baddest backhand on the block belongs to an up-and-coming 18-year-old Italian.
Jannik Sinner, No. 73 in the FedEx ATP Rankings, turned heads last November when he won the Next Gen ATP Finals in Milan. His fluid, bruising backhand immediately impressed as he ripped spectacular winners from that wing with relative ease. Sinner’s backhand motion is as smooth as silk and the ball explodes off the strings thanks to exquisite timing and an efficient building of kinetic energy focused on the point of contact.
So, what specifically is so good about this wrecking ball of a backhand?
Two things. Spin and power.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of players who competed in a minimum of 10 ATP matches on Hawk-Eye courts from 2018-2020 identifies Sinner as a peak performer in both categories.
Average Backhand Topspin - Revolutions Per Minute (RPM)
Adding spin to the ball helps create more margin for error and, in turn, allows for more power to be added to the shot as the spin helps keep it in. Sinner was the leader of the pack in hitting the most spin off his backhand wing, averaging 1858 rpm from 17 matches in the data set.
The leading five players in the spin category were:
1. Jannik Sinner = 1858 rpm
2. Martin Klizan = 1840 rpm
3. Felix Auger-Aliassime = 1825 rpm
4. Pablo Cuevas = 1735 rpm
5. John Millman = 1680 rpm
Out of the current Top 10, Gael Monfils (1551 rpm), Stefanos Tsitsipas (1280 rpm) and Daniil Medvedev (1262 rpm) led the way. Rafael Nadal led The “Big Three” with the most backhand topspin (1252 rpm), followed by Novak Djokovic (1148 rpm) and Roger Federer (548 rpm). Federer traditionally employs more slice backhands than the others, which lowers his overall rating here.
Average Backhand Speed (MPH)
The ability to “rock” a backhand is not a problem for the teenage Italian, as he had the fifth- highest average on tour with backhand speed, averaging 69 mph.
The leading five players in the data set are listed below.
1. Nikoloz Basilashvili = 71.2 mph
2. John Millman = 70.2 mph
3. Rafael Nadal = 69.8 mph
4. Ugo Humbert = 69.2 mph
5. Jannik Sinner = 69.1 mph
Dominic Thiem led the current Top 10 with average backhand speed at 67.4 mph, followed by Djokovic (67.3 mph) and Alexander Zverev (67.0 mph). Federer was around the middle of the ATP pack, averaging 66.1 mph. The average backhand speed for the 94 players in the data set was 66.0 mph.
2019 NextGen ATP Finals
Sinner’s victory at the 2019 Next Gen ATP Finals firmly put him on the map. His backhand metrics in his five matches provide a key insight into exactly how he manage to raise the trophy.
Next Gen ATP Finals: Sinner Five-Match Backhand Analysis
Average Backhand Speed
Sinner was crushing his backhand in Milan, averaging 75.3 mph, which was a considerable 7.1 mph faster on average than his opponents. His backhand averaged a jaw-dropping 80.2 mph in his round-robin match against Mikael Ymer.
Court Position
Sinner hit the ball much harder off his backhand wing in Milan than his opponents and he did so from superior court position. He made contact with 23 per cent of backhands inside the baseline, which was almost double that of five opponents.
2019 Next Gen ATP Finals: Backhand Contact Point
Players
Inside Baseline
< 2 Metres Of Baseline
> 2 Metres Behind Baseline
Sinner
23%
64%
13%
5 Opponents
12%
57%
31%
Sinner’s backhand came to play in Milan. It already has the hallmarks as one of the most lethal shots in our game.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
