Spoiler:
Roger Federer has lost 4 Wimbledon finals in total to Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, which is quite surprising.
Nadal and Djokovic, by contrast, have never lost a final at their best Slams.
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Roger Federer is considered the greatest player of all time by many. But the gap between the Swiss Maestro and his closest rivals - which once seemed unbridgeable - keeps narrowing with every passing Slam and every passing year.
When Federer won his 20th Grand Slam title in 2018, you'd be forgiven for thinking that the popular 'GOAT' debate in tennis was over. 20 Slam was unprecedented in men's tennis, and at that time it would take a while before a 'new Roger Federer' was born to eclipse it.
Even though the next two greatest players of all time - Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic - belong to the same era as Federer and are both still active, the circumstances back then seemed overwhelmingly in favor of the Swiss. After ascending to the World No. 1 ranking in February that year, Federer looked likely to add even more to his Slam tally and run far away from his two 'Big 3' peers.
Roger Federer won his 20th Slam at Australian Open 2018
Roger Federer won his 20th Slam at Australian Open 2018
But the circumstances have changed now. Since getting out of his mid-career slump and winning Wimbledon 2018, Novak Djokovic hasn't looked back. He now sits at 17 Slams, just three short of Federer, and is almost certain to surpass the Swiss legend's once-unattainable 310 weeks at No. 1.
Rafael Nadal, meanwhile, has added another US Open trophy to his collection in addition to winning the French Open like clockwork. Now just one short of breaking Federer's Slam tally, Nadal is heavily tipped to either equal or overtake the record by next year.
So what changed for Roger Federer from March 2018? He decided to skip the claycourt season once again that year, as he had done the two years prior, and concentrate on defending his title at Wimbledon. But something seemed off from the moment the Maestro returned to the court.
Although he won the title at Stuttgart, Federer looked uncharacteristically off his game in Halle - where he lost to Borna Coric, who is not well-known for his grasscourt skills. Things kept going south for Federer as he blew away match points and squandered a two-set lead to Kevin Anderson in the Wimbledon quarterfinals, ultimately losing in five.
This coincided with the resurgence of Novak Djokovic, who won Wimbledon and the following two Slams to announce that he wasn't giving up on the race any time soon. Both Djokovic and Nadal now look fully fit and ready to continue their Slam-winning streak; the duo have monopolized the Majors since Roland Garros 2018.
Novak Djokovic after winning the Wimbledon 2019 final, a match for the ages.
Novak Djokovic after winning the Wimbledon 2019 final, a match for the ages.
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There is quite a realistic possibility that the three greatest players of all time end up having equal Slams or perhaps being separated from each other by only one Slam.
Given such a scenario, the 'GOAT' question will probably never have a clear answer. There could be an argument against Rafael Nadal for his inconsistency on surfaces outside clay and his skewed CV, while Djokovic's deniers would bring up his lack of Olympic success and US Open final losses (despite it being played on his preferred surface).
What could be the biggest argument against Roger Federer? The biggest point might be his four Wimbledon final defeats to his biggest rivals on his favorite surface, together with his Slam head-to-head against the two overall.
Looking back at Roger Federer's four Wimbledon final defeats
Until 2008, Roger Federer seemed invincible on the green grass of Wimbledon. His regal aura at the Mecca of tennis seemed insurmountable, to the extent that even the Royals sitting in the stands seemed to pale in comparison.
But in 2008 a brute named Rafael Nadal came along to dethrone the King of Grass and write his own epic. After losses to Federer the two previous years, including a thrilling encounter in 2007, Nadal was a man on a mission as he attempted to win his first Slam outside clay.
It wasn't easy for the Spaniard; in fact, it was anything but that. After losing the opening two sets Roger Federer almost did the impossible, and got to within one point of getting the break in the fifth. It almost felt like it was written in the stars; that there couldn't be a more poetic way of Federer retaining his kingdom.
But Nadal had other plans. The force of nature from Mallorca showed the incredible mental fortitude which he has come to be known for, as he kept Federer at bay and won a historic battle.
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal after their Wimbledon epic in 2008
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal after their Wimbledon epic in 2008
But Roger Federer is not one to go away after one defeat. The fallen champion came back the following year to beat American Andy Roddick and win his sixth title at Wimbledon, in what was another marathon.
Federer added a seventh feather to his Wimbledon crown when he won the title three years later in 2012, beating home favorite Andy Murray in the final. And he won the Championships again in 2017, getting the better of Marin Cilic in what was a surreal comeback year for the Maestro.
Roger Federer won his 8th Wimbledon crown in 2017
Roger Federer won his 8th Wimbledon crown in 2017
But between those triumphs in 2012 and 2017, Federer played two more finals at Wimbledon. And unfortunately for him, these two finals came in the era of Novak Djokovic.
After his meteoric rise in 2011, the Serb reached something of a dead-end in Slams over the next few years. He fell in the final hurdle at three out of the previous five Slams leading up to Wimbledon 2014.
Novak Djokovic came into that match in imperious form, but Roger Federer was still expected to come through based on his grasscourt prowess. And Federer's start showed his intentions, as he took the first set in a tiebreak.
But Djokovic fought back to take the next two sets and also raced to a 5-3 lead in the fourth. The Maestro seemed to have been outwitted at this point, but what came after that shocked everyone.
Federer fought back from the brink of defeat to break Djokovic twice and take the set 7-5. And then, serving in a sudden death situation at 4-5 in the decider, the Swiss capitulated in decidedly anticlimactic fashion.
Federer had just one bad service game, making four unforced errors, and that was enough to give Djokovic his second Wimbledon crown.
The pair met again the following year, but this time around the Serb had a pretty straightforward four-set victory. Much to the surprise of everyone, Federer looked second best from start to finish despite playing on his beloved grass.
Novak Djokovic won his 2014 and 2015 Wimbledon titles at Roger Federer
Novak Djokovic won his 2014 and 2015 Wimbledon titles at Roger Federer's expense
Roger Federer's fourth and so far last defeat in a Wimbledon final came in 2019, and it was a match that will soon become a part of folklore.
Roger Federer, almost 38, was fresh off a victory against Rafael Nadal in the semifinal, and was looking to win his first Slam after beating both his biggest rivals. And he did look in prime position to do just that, as he controlled a majority of the points right from the start.
Apart from the tiebreak blips in Sets 1 and 3, it all looked good for Federer until he had two match points in the fifth set, on serve.
A picture that has inserted itself into history books, in a rather hurtful manner for Roger Federer fans
A picture that has inserted itself into history books, in a rather hurtful manner for Roger Federer fans
At 8-7 40-15, everything came crumbling down for Roger Federer. While most of the Swiss' fans would have been ready to pop the champagne at this point, Djokovic soon gave them reason to put the cork back in the bottle.
The Serb broke back in mesmerizing fashion, which left the largely pro-Federer crowd on Centre Court stunned and silenced. Federer would have a few more opportunities to break at 11-11, but Djokovic stood firm to push the final into a first ever Match Tiebreak.
As in the previous two tiebreaks, Djokovic once again played his best tennis when it mattered most. The Serb refused to make any unforced errors, and that sealed Roger Federer's fate as well as the historic match.
Roger Federer looking visibly distraught after losing the Wimbledon 2019 final
Roger Federer looking visibly distraught after losing the Wimbledon 2019 final
Four finals, four painful defeats. Roger Federer has had a glorious run at Wimbledon, but he has also somehow faced his career's worst moments at the same place. That is in stark contrast to the preferred hunting grounds of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, who have both never lost a final at their favorite Slam.
Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic's dominance at their best Slams
Rafael Nadal is a mind-bending 12-0 in finals at Roland Garros, a tournament where he has lost only twice in 15 appearances. The Spaniard has faced Roger Federer in the final of the French Open on four separate occasions, and in the semis on two other occasions, winning all of them without ever requiring a fifth set.
Nadal has also faced Novak Djokovic twice in the French Open final and thrice in the semis, winning all those meetings - with only the 2013 semifinal going to a decider. The Spaniard's solitary loss to Djokovic at Roland Garros came in their quarterfinal meeting of 2015, when Nadal was going through a major slump.
Novak Djokovic, meanwhile, has never lost at the Australian Open in the years he has managed to make the last four of the tournament. The Serb has never faced Roger Federer in the final at Melbourne, but has met the Swiss in the semis on four occasions - winning all of them pretty comfortably.
Djokovic, like Nadal, has never lost a final at his best Slam; he boasts an 8-0 record in Australian Open finals.
Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are invincible at their favorite slams
Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are invincible at their favorite slams
But if we were to talk in terms of surfaces rather than individual Slams, then Djokovic's record starts looking a little less imposing. The Serb has lost a staggering five finals at the US Open despite it being played on hardcourts, Djokovic's favorite surface. The 17-time Slam champion has fallen to Nadal twice in a US Open final and once to Federer, while losing to the Swiss in the semifinals on two other occasions.
Djokovic, however, has a win each over both Nadal and Federer in the US Open finals to redeem himself, unlike the Swiss who has never beaten Djokovic in a Wimbledon final.
Arguing Roger Federer's case
Some might point out that looking too much into Roger Federer's Wimbledon final losses to his rivals is unfair given that three of his four losses came when the Maestro was well into his 30s. For context, Federer's earliest defeat to Novak Djokovic in a Wimbledon final came in 2014, when the Maestro was almost 33.
In 2019, an almost 38-year-old Roger Federer reached the final by shoving and pushing his way through one of the toughest draws ever. He faced Matteo Berrettini, Kei Nishikori and Rafael Nadal in back-to-back matches, and yet almost managed to pull off a win for the ages in the final.
At 38, Roger Federer continues to turn back time
At 38, Roger Federer continues to turn back time
It is difficult to imagine either Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic having a run like Roger Federer did in 2017 and early part of 2018 while aged 36, considering both are already showing signs of physical burn-out. It is all the more difficult to expect either of the two to still be playing, let alone being inside the top 3, at 38.
That is not to say the two warriors are incapable of doing so; they could well prove these predictions wrong. But to do it in style like Roger Federer, beating your greatest rival in the semis and coming within one point of beating yet another great rival in the final, deserves some plaudits.
Still, even if we discount that defeat when Federer was 38, or those three defeats when he was in his 30s, Roger Federer still lost a Wimbledon final in his prime to a 22-year-old Rafael Nadal. And if it really does come down to the tiniest of variables for separating the three champions, that just might prove to be Roger Federer's biggest defeat.
